Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the carbon trading market and related sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies involved in power generation and environmental protection [2][9]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. The trading volume for the year increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, although the average transaction price fell by 19.23% to 62.36 yuan per ton [2][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to carbon reduction, transitioning from energy control to carbon control, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [9]. - Natural gas prices have decreased due to a combination of supply-demand dynamics and seasonal factors, with significant price drops observed in various markets, including a 39.20% decrease in the Henry Hub spot price [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon trading market is projected to continue expanding, with key emission units increasing awareness of carbon reduction. The number of units under management reached 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][6]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with stable revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng, which benefit from diversified income streams [9][11]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% week-on-week drop. The report notes that the supply-demand balance is improving, contributing to this price decrease [2][12]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower upstream resource costs and improved sales volumes [34][35]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report indicates that the power equipment and gas sectors outperformed the broader market during the review period from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [37]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the National Development and Reform Commission's notification on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue recovery for power plants [39][40]. - Key company announcements include performance forecasts from major players like Datang Power and Shanghai Electric, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [41]. 5. Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [43][44].

FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00270 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 6,537,821,440 | | 0 | | 6,537,821,440 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 6,537,821,440 | | 0 | | 6,537,821,440 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年1月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 粤海投資有限公司 | ...

粤海投资 20260202 摘要 粤海投资东江水业务在 2026 年基价协议中预计增长 2.4%，深圳和东 莞供水量稳定，非东江水业务虽有所下降，但并购项目有望平滑影响。 公司计划维持 65%的分红比例，并控制资本开支，以应对东江水源续约 所需的大额资金需求。 房地产业务方面，天河城商场出租率良好，但写字楼租赁面临挑战。高 速公路业务受新公路分流影响，但预计将逐渐恢复。电厂业务受益于低 煤价，利润预期良好。酒店和百货业务规模较小，影响有限。 东江水续约金额预估为 500 亿至 540 亿港币，公司需充分准备资金。 广东省政府可能倾向于按合同到期时间续约，粤海投资在未来的竞争中 具有一定优势，因其已运营东江水 25 年。 2027-2029 年香港供水价格谈判预计参考通胀率和汇率，涨幅不会太 大。2026 年盈利增长主要依靠财务费用下降和营业利润增加，东江水 价格上涨是主要驱动力。 公司计划对符合条件的自来水和污水处理项目进行提价谈判，以实现平 均价格的小幅上升，抵消接水管业务下滑带来的影响。优先考虑自来水 项目收购，追求高单位数的合理回报。 Q&A 粤海投资在 2025 年的业绩表现如何？各项业务的具体情况是 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry is entering a significant performance period, with expectations for intensified carbon reduction efforts [1] - The year 2026 marks the transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with substantial progress anticipated in carbon reduction initiatives [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies focusing on performance and increased dividends, with 61 environmental companies expected to release their 2025 performance forecasts [5] Summary by Sections 2025 Performance Forecast - 61 environmental companies have released performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting significant positive growth, 4 companies experiencing declines, 8 companies turning losses into profits, and 35 companies reporting losses [12] - Notable performers include: - Anhui Instrument Technology: Expected net profit of 42-62 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 191.52%-330.34% [12] - GaoNeng Environment: Expected net profit of 750-900 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.66%-86.79% [12] - Yuehai Investment: Expected net profit growth of 43%, reaching nearly 4.5 billion HKD [13] Biodiesel and UCO Market - The average export price of UCO is expected to reach 7,742 CNY/ton in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [19] - UCO export volume remains high, with a total of 2.7558 million tons exported in 2025, despite a 17% decline in biodiesel exports [19] - The price of UCO has shown a consistent upward trend, with the latest price reaching 1,075 USD/ton, a 9.1% increase from early 2025 [29] Policy and Market Tracking - The report tracks significant developments in carbon reduction policies, including the establishment of a dual control system for carbon emissions and energy consumption [33] - The carbon trading market has seen a total transaction volume of 862,100 tons, with a closing price of 79.00 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026 [36] - Recent policies emphasize energy efficiency and carbon reduction in public institutions, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [38]

持续高分红，预计2025 年股息率为6.3%。公司常年保持高分红，23年-25H1 分红比例保持65%，预计25 年归母净利润44.93 亿港元*65%分红比例对应股息率为6.3%。同时伴随全国开始新一轮调价周期、污水 付费向用户转移，期待水务估值整体修复。 机构：广发证券 研究员：陈龙/郭鹏/陈舒心 盈利预测与投资建议。预计25-27 年归母净利润为44.93/46.38/47.70亿港元，对应PE 10.4/10.1/9.8 倍。公 司手握东深项目稀缺资源，剥离粤海置地后业绩、现金流、分红持续向好，参考同业公司给予26 年15 倍PE，对应10.64 港元/股合理价值，维持"买入"评级。 核心观点： 公司预告2025 年业绩同比增长43%，受益于粤海置地剥离和财务费用下降。公司发布2025 年业绩预 告，预计2025 年归母净利润同比增长43%，按照2024 年31.42 亿港元计算预计2025 年归母净利润将达 到接近45 亿港元，业绩快速增长主要由于粤海置地1 月21 日剥离后减亏且财务费用有所下降。此前粤 海置地剥离后25H1 资产负债率大幅同比下降15.1pct 至42.5%，有息资产负债率同比下 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|公用事业Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 环 保 & 海 外 】 粤 海 投 资 （00270.HK） 预告 25 年归母净利润同比增长 43%，股息价值突出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 备注：除非特别说明，否则报告货币为港元 | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 20,322 | 18,505 | 18,528 | 18,667 | 18,769 | | 增长率（ % ） | -12.4% | -8.9% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | | EBITDA | 9,920 | 9,909 | 10,272 | 10,309 | 10,326 | | 归母净利润 | 4,370 | 4,297 | 4,493 | 4,638 | 4,770 | | 增长率（ % ） | -8.3% | -1.7% ...

花旗表示，基于上述原因，将粤投今明两年净利润预测上调2.1%至2.6%。基于盈利增长及估值向前滚 动，目标价上调10%，由原先8港元升至8.8港元。该集团预测2025年派息率达6.3%，具有吸引力且在同 行中最高，仍是花旗在香港公用股的首选。 花旗发布研报称，重申对粤海投资(00270)"买入"评级，因其昨日(28日)发盈喜，预计公司净利润同比增 长43%至44.93亿港元，高于市场预期约2%，主要因为利息支出低于预期。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，重申对粤海投资(00270)"买入"评级，因其昨日(28日)发盈喜，预 计公司净利润同比增长43%至44.93亿港元，高于市场预期约2%，主要因为利息支出低于预期。 花旗表示，基于上述原因，将粤投今明两年净利润预测上调2.1%至2.6%。基于盈利增长及估值向前滚 动，目标价上调10%，由原先8港元升至8.8港元。该集团预测2025年派息率达6.3%，具有吸引力且在同 行中最高，仍是花旗在香港公用股的首选。 ...