Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities reports a divergence in market views regarding Hong Kong property prices, with offshore investors being more optimistic compared to local and mainland investors who focus on valuation adequacy [1] - The firm has raised target prices for several real estate stocks by an average of 10% based on a narrowing discount to net asset value, reflecting strong performance in Hong Kong development projects and high-end retail sales [1] - Bank of America Securities favors developers such as Cheung Kong Holdings and Sino Land due to their earnings sensitivity to property price growth, while preferring rental stocks like Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties for their high dividend yields and resilience in mainland luxury retail [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts a 10% to 15% increase in property prices over the next two years, noting that developers have already factored in a 15% to 20% growth in transaction volume into their stock prices [2] - Two major risks are identified: limited room for further cuts in the best lending rate by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the potential return to floating mortgage rates if bond market rate cuts do not materialize by the end of 2026 [2] - Stagnation in median household income and a year-on-year decline in approved immigration visas for 2025 may restrict further price increases in the property market [2]

发展商方面，该行看好长实集团及信和置业，因其盈利对楼价增长的敏感度较高。收租股则偏好太古地 产及恒隆地产，因股息率较高且内地奢侈品零售具韧性。 美银证券发表研报指，香港发展商已将今明两年15%至20%交易额增长计入股价，该行预测今明两年的 楼价涨幅介乎10%至15%。但认为有两大主要风险，包括香港金管局已表示进一步下调最优惠利率空间 有限，而香港银行的五年期抵押贷款利率优惠将于4月底到期。若债券市场在2026年底前两次减息未能 实现，银行可能会恢复浮动利房贷贷款方案。同时，2025年首九个月香港家庭月入中位数停滞不前，及 2025年批准的移民签证数目按年下降，若情况持续，最终可能限制楼价进一步上涨的潜力。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

在香港写字楼市场空置率仍保持高位的背景下，公司香港办公楼整体出租率录得91%，其中核心区域太 古广场出租率按年提升1个百分点至96%，太古坊出租率则按年下降4个百分点至89%；租金方面，去年 全年公司办公楼租金调幅仍维持在下跌13%至15%的区间，中金认为主要是公司在激烈的市场竞争中采 取灵活租赁策略，优先保障出租率及租户留存所致。 中金维持对其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价26.5港元，分别对应2025至2026年4.3%、4.5%股息收益率。 中金发表研报指，受重奢品牌拓店改造陆续完成推动，太古地产的上海兴业太古汇与北京三里屯太古里 经营表现持续改善，去年全年零售额分别年增49.6%及11.2%；新项目方面，公司披露广州聚龙湾太古 里一期已于2025年底推出以零售、餐饮、休闲为主的一期物业，三亚太古里、上海前滩项目和陆家嘴太 古源等项目如期推进，预计将于2026年起陆续落成。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Group 1: Bubble Mart (泡泡玛特) - Citic Jiantou maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Bubble Mart, highlighting the company's "one strong, multiple strong" IP structure, with Labubu's influence solidified and new IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby driving high growth [1] Group 2: MGM China (美高梅中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China, reporting a 21.4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 29.5% to HKD 2.75 billion, driven by strong performance from MGM Cotai and precise targeting of high-end customers [2] - CICC also maintains an "Outperform" rating for MGM China, noting adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.753 billion for Q4 2025, up 29% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, despite a brand fee increase expected to impact net profit by about 14% [4] - Citic Securities maintains an "Accumulate" rating for MGM China, indicating that the company's performance exceeded expectations, with net income and adjusted EBITDA recovering to pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong performances from MGM Macau and MGM Cotai [7] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, reporting a 9% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2025 and a 24% increase in adjusted net profit, with same-store sales growing for three consecutive quarters and restaurant profit margins improving by 0.7 percentage points to 13.0% [3] Group 4: Innovent Biologics (信达生物) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Innovent Biologics, projecting product revenue of RMB 11.9 billion for 2025, a 45% year-on-year increase, with seven new products included in the 2026 medical insurance catalog [5] Group 5: Swire Properties (太古地产) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Swire Properties, noting significant recovery in luxury retail operations in mainland China, with retail sales in Shanghai and Beijing increasing by 49.6% and 11.2% respectively [6] Group 6: Meituan (美团) - Citic Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, announcing a plan to acquire Dingdong Maicai for USD 717 million, which is expected to strengthen its East China front warehouse network and bring in HKD 170 million in adjusted net profit post-integration [8] Group 7: Kuaishou (快手) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, highlighting the launch of its AI video model 3.0, which supports 15-second generation and intelligent scene segmentation, with commercial growth expected to reach USD 240 million in ARR by 2025 [10] Group 8: Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Huiju Technology, emphasizing its deep ties with leading CSPs like Google and the benefits from the upgrade of optical modules, projecting a revenue increase of 82.1% year-on-year for H1 2025 [10]

中金发布研报称，维持太古地产(01972)盈利预测不变。维持跑赢行业评级及26.5港元目标价，对应 4.3%/4.5%2025-26年股息收益率、隐含8%上行空间。公司当前交易于4.5%/4.7%2025/2026年股息收益 率。 香港零售物业零售额延续复苏态势 2025年香港重奢商场太古广场与大众商场太古城中心零售额分别同比+5.6%、+2.7%(1-3Q25分别同比 +3.6%和+3.0%)，表现跑赢香港社零(2025年同比+1.0%)，该行认为一方面得益于重奢品牌零售额在低基 数下同比复苏，另一方面公司亦持续推进租户调整、积极开展营销活动，吸引多元客流。 风险提示：内地重奢消费修复不及预期；香港办公楼租金超预期承压。 受重奢品牌拓店改造陆续完成推动，上海兴业太古汇与北京三里屯太古里经营表现持续改善，2025年全 年零售额分别同比增长49.6%及11.2%(较1-3Q零售额增速分别提升7.7和3.4个百分点)；此外，上海前滩 太古里、成都太古里及广州太古汇全年零售额亦分别录得6.9%、6.5%和1.6%的同比增长，四季度表现 均较前三季度有所提升。新项目方面，公司披露广州聚龙湾太古里一期已于2025年底推 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持太古地产(01972)盈利预测不变。维持跑赢行业评级及26.5港 元目标价，对应4.3%/4.5% 2025-26年股息收益率、隐含8%上行空间。公司当前交易于4.5%/4.7% 2025/2026年股息收益率。 中金主要观点如下： 内地重奢购物中心经营表现突出 受重奢品牌拓店改造陆续完成推动，上海兴业太古汇与北京三里屯太古里经营表现持续改善，2025年全 年零售额分别同比增长49.6%及11.2%（较1-3Q零售额增速分别提升7.7和3.4个百分点）；此外，上海前 滩太古里、成都太古里及广州太古汇全年零售额亦分别录得6.9%、6.5%和1.6%的同比增长，四季度表 现均较前三季度有所提升。新项目方面，公司披露广州聚龙湾太古里一期已于2025年底推出以零售、餐 饮、休闲为主的一期物业，三亚太古里、上海前滩项目和陆家嘴太古源等项目如期推进，预计将于2026 年起陆续落成。 香港办公楼出租率保持一定韧性，租金承压态势延续 在香港写字楼市场空置率仍保持高位的背景下，公司香港办公楼整体出租率录得91%（同比下降2ppt， 环比下降1ppt），其中核心区域太古广场出租率同比提升1 ...

根据公开资料整理，本次成交的为实用面积538平方呎的两房开放式厨房单位，扣除折扣后价格在842- 894.1万港元，实用面积单价为1.5651-1.6619万港元/平方呎。 观点网讯：2月8日，太古地产旗下香港港岛东临海住宅项目"海德园"单日成交9伙，其中录得一宗大手 客连购两伙的交易。 截至2月8日，海德园累计成交已达121宗，总销售金额逾10亿港元。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...