行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 10 日 雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长，1 月天猫美妆 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现强于市场。2026 年 1 月 30 日至 2026 年 2 月 6 日期间， 申万美容护理指数上涨 3.7%，表现强于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数上涨 2.8%，强于 申万 A 指 4.4pct；申万个护用品指数上涨 0.7%，强于申万 A 指数 2.2pct。 ⚫ 周观点：雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长，1 月天猫美妆品类高增。据雅诗兰黛 25Q4(FY26Q2) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 为什么我们特别看好 AI 电商 AI 应用研究感思录（三） TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期 AI 应用呈现井喷式发展，各种 AI 应用层出不穷，比如阿里的千问，比如 KIMI 的更新，又比如 CLAWDBOT，但我们近期还是建议投资者重点关注 AI 电商，我们非常看好 AI 电商的发展。原因如下： ❑ 风险提示：AI 技术发展不及预期、商业化存在不确定性、政策监管风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 160 | 3.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2248.3 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2067.2 | 2.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 18.8 22.4 39.3 相对表现 17.6 9.0 16.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关报告 1、《AI 应用研究感思录（二）—一"问" 激起千层浪，超级 AI 入口 ...

证券之星消息，1月29日互联网电商板块较上一交易日上涨0.47%，壹网壹创领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。互联网电商板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300792 | 壹网壹创 | 42.68 | 5.88% | 31.03万 | | 13.49 乙 | | 600365 | ST通葡 | 3.07 | 2.33% | 9.05万 | | 2751.93万 | | 301001 | 凯淳股份 | 36.39 | 1.65% | 11.78万 | | 4.34亿 | | 301110 | 青木科技 | 81.21 | 1.61% | 8.76万 | | 7.34亿 | | 300592 | 华凯易佰 | 13.85 | 1.54% | 32.71万 | | 4.63亿 | | 002315 | 焦点科技 | 52.74 | 1.27% | 14.12万 | | 7.59亿 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast of Qingmu Technology meets expectations, with a focus on the growth of its own brands and AI catalysis [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118-136 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 30%-50% [1] - In Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 38-56 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 111%-211% [1] Group 2: Business Development - The rapid growth of self-owned brand incubation has established a complete business model and validated its capabilities [1] - The company's basic operations in agency services maintain steady growth, with a strong competitive advantage in the large apparel sector, while also expanding into categories like trendy toys and pet food [1] - The company serves brands including Skechers, Pop Mart, and Jellycat [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Attention will be given to the new acquisition of the self-owned brand Noremega in 2026 [1] - The technology solutions and consumer operation services are well-equipped with products, scenarios, and tools, positioning the company to capitalize on the GEO trend [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The demand side of the cosmetics and medical beauty sector is expected to accelerate, with retail sales of cosmetics projected to reach 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, surpassing the overall retail growth by 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed beauty companies is strong, with significant growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) through platforms like Douyin, particularly during promotional events like Double Eleven [3]. - The A-share market shows a mixed performance, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa experiencing substantial improvements in their earnings [3]. - The e-commerce operation sector is rebounding, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Yiwang Yichuang expected to see profit growth exceeding 50% in 2025 [3]. - The medical beauty segment is anticipated to face slight fatigue due to macroeconomic factors, but new product launches are expected to stimulate consumer interest in 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - Retail sales of cosmetics are projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, with Q4 growth reaching 9.9% [3]. - Key companies such as Shiseido and Lin Qingxuan are expected to see significant GMV growth, with Lin Qingxuan projected to achieve triple-digit growth [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies with strong channel and brand matrices like Maogeping, Shiseido, and Lin Qingxuan, as well as those with improving earnings like Porlaia and Marubi [3]. Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, with companies like Aimeike facing challenges [3]. - Recommendations focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and broad product pipelines, such as Aimeike and Langzi [3]. E-commerce and Operations - The e-commerce operation sector is recovering, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology expected to see significant profit growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of self-operated brands and the potential for high growth in this segment [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms including Porlaia, Maogeping, and Shiseido, with projected PE ratios reflecting growth expectations [5].

证券之星消息，1月27日互联网电商板块较上一交易日上涨0.73%，凯淳股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4139.9，上涨0.18%。深证成指报收于14329.91，上涨0.09%。互联网电商板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日互联网电商板块主力资金净流入1.81亿元，游资资金净流入1.2亿元，散户资金 净流出3.01亿元。互联网电商板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301001 凯淳股份 | | -7014.40万 | 11.26% | -3089.59万 | -4.96% | -3924.80万 | -6.30% | | 300592 华凯易佰 | | 6546.43万 | 12.72% | 871.55万 | 1.69% | -7417.99万 | -14.42% | | 301110 青木科技 | | 5552.27万 | 7.95% | 3825.61万 | 5. ...

Group 1 - Company Sanwei Communication announced a partnership to establish a private equity fund with a total investment of 114 million yuan, with the company contributing 25 million yuan, focusing on high-tech industries such as smart manufacturing and new energy [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire 100% of Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 280 billion yuan, with core assets including gold mines in Mali and Ivory Coast, and an expected increase in gold production to 25 tons by 2029 [2] - Haike New Source signed a long-term cooperation agreement with BYD Lithium Battery to supply at least 100,000 tons of solvents annually for three years [3] Group 2 - China Aluminum International reported a new contract total of 468.36 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.94%, with significant growth in industrial and overseas contracts [4] - Jianxin Co. expects a net loss of 20 to 29 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 19.37 million yuan in the previous year [5] - ST Dongjing anticipates a loss of 40 to 60 million yuan for 2025, an improvement from a loss of 73.45 million yuan in the previous year [6] Group 3 - Zhejiang Haideman plans to raise up to 1.517 billion yuan through a private placement for high-end machine tool projects [7] - Anlu Technology intends to raise up to 1.262 billion yuan for FPGA chip development projects [8][9] - AVIC Chengfei expects a net profit increase of 5.47% to 11.67% for 2025, projecting profits between 3.4 billion and 3.6 billion yuan [10] Group 4 - Hengtong Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 82.95% to 110.05% for 2025, with expected profits between 270 million and 310 million yuan [11] - Qingmu Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 30% to 50% for 2025, projecting profits between 118 million and 136 million yuan [13] - Zhongke Microelectronics expects a loss of 18 to 25 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [14] Group 5 - Huashan Electric predicts a loss of 42 to 49.2 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 26.77 million yuan in the previous year [15] - Qitian Technology expects a loss of 60 to 95 million yuan for 2025, an improvement from a loss of 214 million yuan in the previous year [16] - Sanyuan Gene announced a plan to reduce its shareholding by up to 2% [17] Group 6 - Zhongxing Junye forecasts a net profit increase of 134.32% to 173.37% for 2025, with expected profits between 300 million and 350 million yuan [18] - Shengshi Technology anticipates a net profit decrease of 50.26% to 64.55% for 2025, projecting profits between 62 million and 87 million yuan [19] - Lante Optical expects a net profit increase of 70.04% to 81.38% for 2025, with projected profits between 375 million and 400 million yuan [20] Group 7 - Dongfang Risen anticipates a loss of 2.3 to 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 3.436 billion yuan in the previous year [21] - Wandong Medical announced a change in leadership, electing Wang Jianguo as the new chairman [22] - Longsoft Technology expects a loss of 49 to 60 million yuan for 2025, with projected revenues between 148 million and 164 million yuan [23] Group 8 - Zongyi Co. forecasts a net profit increase of approximately 264.05% for 2025, with expected revenues of around 480 million yuan [24] - Sifang New Materials anticipates a loss of around 300 million yuan for 2025, with projected revenues of about 1 billion yuan [25] - Jiuding New Materials plans to acquire 100% of Jiuding New Energy for 39.51 million yuan [26] Group 9 - Kangyuan Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of a new drug aimed at treating children's ailments [27] - Kaipu Testing announced plans for share reductions by its chairman and vice president [28] - Fengfan Co. intends to acquire 51% of Yanling Jiaye for 382.5 million yuan, with performance commitments for the next three years [29][30] Group 10 - Axin Security received a government subsidy of 6.8 million yuan [31] - Ge Microelectronics announced plans for a share reduction by a major shareholder [32] - ST Yingfit expects a loss of 24 to 31 million yuan for 2025, a reduction from a loss of 40.4 million yuan in the previous year [33] Group 11 - Fujilai forecasts a net profit increase of 282.17% to 296.8% for 2025, with expected profits between 62.7 million and 65.1 million yuan [34] - Huakong Saige anticipates a loss of 97 to 120 million yuan for 2025, a shift from a profit of 17.03 million yuan in the previous year [35] - Landun Optical expects a loss of 70 to 95 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 6.49 million yuan in the previous year [36] Group 12 - ST Zhongji forecasts a loss of 35 to 55 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 231 million yuan in the previous year [37] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical expects a profit of 260 to 310 million yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 299 million yuan in the previous year [38] - Youkeshu reported a net loss of 13.85 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [39] Group 13 - Haosheng Electronics anticipates a net profit decrease of 56.85% to 59.77% for 2025, projecting profits between 69 million and 74 million yuan [40] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism plans to withdraw from a low-altitude economic investment fund [41] - Guoen Co. has set a preliminary price range of 34 to 42 HKD for its H-share issuance [42]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: 青木科技 (Qingmu Technology) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods and AI Technology Key Financial Projections - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Expected to be between 118 million to 136 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Net Profit**: Projected to be between 38 million to 56 million CNY, with a significant increase of 108% to 207% year-on-year [1] - **2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Anticipated to be between 102 million to 117 million CNY, also reflecting a growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Expected to be between 27 million to 42 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 72% to 172% [1] Brand Growth and Acquisitions - **Self-owned Brands**: The brands 珂蔓朵 (Keman Duo) and 意卡莉 (Yikali) are projected to achieve 600 million CNY in revenue for 2025, indicating a doubling in growth [2] - **Future Projections**: For 2026, self-owned brands are expected to reach 1 billion CNY in revenue with a profit margin of 10% [2] - **Acquisitions**: The acquisition of Norway's VITALIS PHARMA and the domestic distribution rights for Noromega are expected to significantly contribute to profits, with Noromega projected to generate approximately 500 million CNY in revenue for 2025 at a 10% net profit margin [2] - **Performance Targets**: The performance targets for VITALIS are set to contribute 19 million CNY and 26 million CNY to net profit in 2027 and 2028, respectively [2] AI Integration and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency**: The company has a strong technical foundation in non-standard apparel and has developed tools like 青木啄木鸟 (Qingmu Woodpecker) and 青木小白 (Qingmu Xiaobai) to enhance operational efficiency [2] - **Partnership with Alibaba**: As an AI service provider for Alibaba, the company aims to leverage big data to improve model accuracy and advertising efficiency, strengthening its competitive position in the operational sector [2] - **Potential Catalysts**: With increasing attention on AI applications, companies with established AI capabilities are likely to experience further growth opportunities [2] Investment Recommendations - **Future Earnings Estimate**: Projected earnings for 2026 are estimated to be around 240 million to 250 million CNY, corresponding to a current price-to-earnings ratio of 30x [2] - **Stock Price Drivers**: Rapid progress in acquisitions, successful brand launches, and heightened interest in AI-related concepts are expected to drive stock price upward, warranting investor attention [2]