近年来，快充铁锂在动力领域的大规模应用以及储能需求的高景气度，进一步拉动磷酸铁锂正极材料出 货量增长，根据则言咨询数据，2025年1-11月我国磷酸铁锂产量合计348万吨，同比+57.9%；单月来 看，2025年11月磷酸铁锂产量41.7万吨，同比+52.8%，环比+4.2%，创历史新高。受益动力领域的份额 提升以及储能需求的快速增长，我们判断后续铁锂材料需求仍将保持高速增长，我们测算2026年全球磷 酸铁锂正极材料出货量有望达到525万吨，同比+36%，预计到2030年增长至1136万吨，对应2025-2030 年CAGR约24%。 中信证券发布研报称，铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点。需求端，动力领域铁锂渗透率的进一步提 升以及储能的高景气度带来需求的快速增长，中信证券测算2026年全球磷酸铁锂正极材料出货量有望达 到525万吨，同比+36%；供给端，预计2026年增长有限，整体稼动率有望进一步提升，其中高端品仍较 为紧缺。当前铁锂盈利能力处于周期底部，伴随供需结构改善有望迎来修复空间，产品高端化、出海趋 势的进一步明确有望为头部企业带来超额利润。重点推荐铁锂行业内头部企业。 中信证券主要观点如下： 需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is facing significant operational pressure due to rising raw material costs and challenges in passing price increases to downstream battery manufacturers, leading to collective production cuts among major companies in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Production Cuts - Five major LFP companies, including Wanrun New Energy and Hunan Youneng, announced production cuts scheduled for January 2026, with reductions ranging from 35% to 50% [2][3]. - Long-term contracts ("long orders") provide some market security for LFP companies, but challenges remain in transmitting raw material price increases [2][4]. - The collective production cuts are seen as a necessary measure to support pricing amid unfavorable market conditions [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average market price for LFP in November was 14,704.8 yuan per ton, while production costs ranged from 16,798.2 yuan to 17,216.3 yuan per ton, indicating a widening gap between costs and prices [5]. - Despite high demand and increased operational rates, most LFP companies are still operating at a loss, with only a few exceptions like Hunan Youneng and Fulian Precision [5][6]. - The industry is characterized as being in a "sandwich" position, squeezed by rising raw material costs and resistance from downstream customers to accept price hikes [2][5]. Group 3: Expansion Trends - A new wave of capacity expansion is emerging in the LFP sector, with companies like Ningde Times and Wanhua Chemical investing heavily in new production projects [7][8]. - Ningde Times' subsidiary, Bangpu Recycling, launched a new LFP project with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, while Wanhua Chemical plans to build a 650,000-ton LFP project in Shandong [7][8]. - The influx of new entrants and expansion by existing players raises concerns about potential oversupply in the market, especially as the industry has not fully recovered from previous losses [7][8].

Group 1 - Hunan Youneng announced a one-month maintenance on part of its production lines starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce the output of phosphate-based cathode materials (lithium iron phosphate) by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [1][2][3] - This reduction in production will lead to a significant decrease in market supply, potentially putting upward pressure on spot prices amid stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][3] - The scale of the production cut represents a certain percentage of the industry's monthly output, providing general bullish support, but attention should be paid to the capacity replenishment situation of other producers [1][3] Group 2 - The pricing model used by the business community is based on big data and a pricing model, referred to as the benchmark price, which can be used to determine transaction settlement prices for specified dates or average prices over specified periods [1][3] - The pricing formula is defined as settlement price = benchmark price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient that includes factors such as account period costs [1][3]

据上海有色网（SMM）分析，近期磷酸铁锂企业与下游电芯厂继续展开涨价谈判，头部企业本次展开的是 第二轮谈涨，但大部分其他的材料厂第一轮谈涨仍未落地。下游电芯厂整体仍处于接受原料涨价导致正极 材料有涨价的趋势，但实际涨价落地仍需进一步等待上下游的谈判结果。若后续正极材料厂涨价落地将更 有利于锂价上涨向下游传导，打开上行空间。同时天齐锂业调整现货交易结算价模式也侧面论证下游旺盛 需求。 下游高频数据仍支持行业高景气度，碳酸锂库存连续19周处于去库 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年12月25日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检 修时间1个月，减少正极材料产品1.5-3.5万吨；万润新能预计检修时间1个月 ...

| [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★正极厂减产挺价，关注锂电顺价博弈 上周（12/22-12/26）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2601 收盘价环比 +16.5%至 12.78 万元/吨，LC2605 收盘价环比+17.2%至 13.05 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+14.6%、14.9% 至 11.2、10.9 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及 微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+18.2%、+16.9%至 10.2、 10.6 万元/吨。电工价差环比走阔 50 元至 2,650 元/吨。电池级氢 氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比缩窄 1470 元至 0.99 万元/ 吨。 上周碳酸锂价格延续大幅上行，加权合约持仓量变化较小，或预 示部分空头砍仓进一步推升行情，短期走势易受资金情绪影响， 不建议追高。基本面上，SMM 周度去库 ...

Core Viewpoint - Four lithium iron phosphate companies, Hunan YN, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology, announced maintenance and production reduction plans, collectively covering about 50% of the market share, with reductions expected to significantly impact the supply-demand balance in January 2026 [1][4][8]. Group 1: Production Reduction Plans - Hunan YN plans maintenance starting January 1, 2026, for one month, expecting a reduction of 15,000 to 35,000 tons in lithium iron phosphate output, with no significant impact on 2026 performance [2][8]. - Wanrun New Energy will reduce production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons starting December 28, 2025, also for one month, with no major impact on operations [2][8]. - Defang Nano will conduct maintenance from January 1, 2026, for one month, with no significant impact on 2026 performance [3][8]. - Anda Technology will reduce output by 3,000 to 5,000 tons starting January 1, 2026, with no major impact on operations [3][8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Negotiations - The collective production reduction is expected to alter the current supply-demand dynamics in the lithium iron phosphate industry [4][9]. - The timing of the reductions coincides with negotiations for price increases with downstream battery manufacturers, indicating a strong intention from lithium iron phosphate companies to raise prices [9][10]. - Despite high operational rates, many lithium iron phosphate companies are still operating at a loss due to rising raw material costs, with average market prices in November at 14,704.8 yuan per ton, while costs ranged from 16,798.2 to 17,216.3 yuan per ton [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Four lithium iron phosphate companies, Hunan YN, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology, announced maintenance and production reduction plans, collectively covering about 50% of the market share, with reductions expected to significantly impact the supply-demand balance in January 2026 [1][4][7]. Group 1: Production Reduction Plans - Hunan YN plans maintenance starting January 1, 2026, for one month, expecting a reduction of 15,000 to 35,000 tons in lithium iron phosphate output, with no significant impact on 2026 financial performance [2]. - Wanrun New Energy will reduce production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons starting December 28, 2025, also for one month, with no major impact on operations [2]. - Defang Nano will conduct maintenance from January 1, 2026, for one month, with no significant impact on 2026 financial performance [3]. - Anda Technology will also perform maintenance starting January 1, 2026, reducing output by 3,000 to 5,000 tons, with no major impact on operations [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Negotiations - The collective production reduction is expected to alter the current supply-demand dynamics in the lithium iron phosphate industry [4]. - The timing of the maintenance coincides with negotiations for price increases with downstream battery manufacturers, indicating a strong intention among lithium iron phosphate companies to raise prices [8]. - Industry insiders suggest that the reduction is driven by rising costs of raw materials and ongoing losses, with companies facing pressure to negotiate higher prices [9]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - Despite high operating rates, many lithium iron phosphate companies are still operating at a loss, with average market prices in November at 14,704.8 yuan per ton, while costs ranged from 16,798.2 to 17,216.3 yuan per ton [10][11]. - The gap between selling prices and production costs has widened compared to October, indicating increasing financial pressure on companies [11]. - Third-quarter financial reports show that most lithium iron phosphate companies are in a loss-making state [13].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is facing significant challenges due to rising raw material costs and pressure from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to multiple companies announcing production halts for maintenance [3][4][6]. Group 1: Production Halts and Maintenance - Several leading LFP companies, including Anada Technology and De Fang Nano, have announced production halts starting January 1, 2026, for maintenance, lasting approximately one month [4][6]. - Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy also confirmed production cuts, with expected reductions of 15,000 to 35,000 tons and 5,000 to 20,000 tons of LFP output, respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Cost Pressures - The LFP market is experiencing a "strong demand but weak profitability" scenario, exacerbated by rising prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials, which have increased production costs significantly [3][6]. - The cumulative losses of five major LFP companies, including De Fang Nano and Wanrun New Energy, exceeded 10.9 billion yuan from 2023 to the third quarter of 2025, indicating substantial industry profitability pressure [6]. Group 3: Price Negotiations and Industry Adjustments - The recent maintenance announcements are seen as a strategy by LFP manufacturers to negotiate better pricing with downstream battery clients, who have been resistant to accepting price increases [7][8]. - As of December 26, 2023, lithium carbonate prices rose by 8.12%, reaching 130,500 yuan per ton, nearly doubling from the previous year, which is influencing ongoing price negotiations in the industry [8]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need for regulatory measures to optimize the traditional industries, including the LFP sector, to prevent excessive competition and ensure fair market conditions [11]. - The tightening of mining rights approvals is expected to help alleviate the price war in the LFP market by controlling supply and fostering a healthier industry environment [11].

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing significant changes, with major companies announcing equipment maintenance and price disputes affecting market dynamics [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Hunan Youneng announced a one-month equipment maintenance starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce its production of phosphate-based cathode materials by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [5][7]. - Tianqi Lithium announced it will no longer reference Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) prices for its product transactions starting January 1, 2026, opting instead for prices from Mysteel and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [2][3]. - Other companies, including Wanrun New Energy and Defang Nano, also announced similar one-month maintenance periods, indicating a coordinated effort among LFP producers [2][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies - A significant price discrepancy exists between the spot and futures markets for lithium carbonate, with SMM reporting a price of 101,500 CNY/ton, while the futures market prices from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Shanghai Steel Union were reported at 121,000 CNY/ton and 116,000 CNY/ton, respectively [3][4]. - The CEO of SMM stated that their pricing reflects the actual market conditions, and most lithium battery companies use SMM prices for procurement and sales [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent maintenance announcements by LFP producers are seen as a strategy to negotiate better prices with downstream battery manufacturers, particularly as negotiations with leading companies like BYD and CATL have been challenging [5][6]. - The overall production capacity of Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Defang Nano accounts for approximately 48% of the industry’s total capacity, indicating their significant influence on market supply [8]. - The anticipated production of lithium iron phosphate is projected to reach around 3.7 million tons by 2025, highlighting the growing demand in the industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - Several leading lithium iron phosphate (LFP) companies have announced production halts for maintenance, raising questions given the booming downstream demand for batteries, particularly in energy storage [1] Group 1: Company Actions - 德方纳米 plans to conduct annual equipment maintenance starting January 1, 2026, for approximately one month [1] - 湖南裕能 also announced maintenance for some production lines starting January 1, 2026, expected to last one month [1] - 万润新能 has similarly declared a reduction in production for maintenance [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The LFP industry leaders are reducing production despite a surge in downstream demand, which is experiencing explosive growth, particularly in energy storage batteries [1] - There has been a "chip shortage" phenomenon in the industry, indicating high demand levels [1] - The primary goal of these production halts is to strengthen negotiation leverage for price increases with downstream customers [1] Group 3: Pricing Trends - In December, several leading LFP manufacturers initiated a price increase trend, with product processing fees set to rise starting January 2026 [1]