Core Insights - The letter discusses the ongoing exploration of intriguing investment opportunities for the upcoming year, emphasizing a proactive and opportunistic investment approach [2][3] - The firm expresses a long-standing bullish stance on AI, particularly in companies like Nvidia, while acknowledging a more selective investment strategy due to recent market developments [6][7] Investment Performance - The fund's annualized return since inception in November 2020 stands at +21.30%, significantly outperforming the South African Consumer Price Index (CPI) of +10.44% [4] - The fund's performance over the years shows fluctuations, with a notable recovery in 2023 at +30.82% after a decline of -34.25% in 2022 [4] AI Infrastructure and Market Dynamics - There is a growing skepticism regarding the AI infrastructure investments, particularly concerning the balance between capital expenditure and actual returns, leading to questions about over-capacity and potential market bubbles [5][7] - The current profit pool in the AI industry is unevenly distributed, with companies like TSMC and Nvidia capturing most of the value, while the overall industry returns on capital remain respectable [8][9] Credit Market Insights - Credit markets are seen as a crucial source of capital for AI infrastructure development, with major tech platforms tapping into these markets, indicating that the cycle is still in its early stages [14][15] - The firm notes that despite equity investor skepticism, credit investors remain optimistic, which may signal a favorable environment for continued investment in AI infrastructure [15][16] Currency Impact - A strong South African Rand is identified as a headwind for reported returns, as the fund has approximately 80% of its assets offshore, which could negatively impact returns when converted back to local currency [17] Administrative Changes - The fund administrator has undergone consolidation, but the investment strategy and philosophy remain unchanged, with only operational adjustments being made [18][19]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (APP) and Arm Holdings plc (ARM) are both positioned as leaders in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence sector, despite operating in different segments of the technology ecosystem [1][2] AppLovin Corporation (APP) - AppLovin is enhancing its advertising performance through advanced machine learning systems, focusing on app monetization and marketing automation [2] - The company is prioritizing improvements in advertiser onboarding, AI-based support tools, generative AI for ad creation, and marketing for its Axon Ads platform [3] - AppLovin is transitioning from a gaming-centric business to a more sophisticated digital advertising platform, utilizing machine learning to predict user behavior and optimize ad placements [4] - The company reported Q3 revenues of $1.41 billion, a 68% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 79% to $1.16 billion, reflecting an 82% margin [6] - Free cash flow surged 92% to $1.05 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6] - AppLovin's MAX platform is experiencing growth due to rising advertiser demand and effective campaigns, solidifying its position in app-based advertising [7] - The company is projected to achieve 18% revenue growth and a 106% increase in earnings this year, showcasing significant operational leverage [14] Arm Holdings plc (ARM) - Arm Holdings is expanding its ecosystem and forming partnerships, such as with Meta, to enhance AI efficiency across various computing platforms [8] - The company is a key technology partner for major hyperscalers, with its designs contributing to improved energy efficiency and cost performance in chips [10] - Arm's Compute Subsystem (CSS) designs are streamlining chip development, reducing time-to-market and technical risks for manufacturers [11] - The Lumex CSS platform is set to power flagship devices from OPPO and vivo, enhancing mobile AI capabilities [12] - Arm reported Q2 revenues of $1.14 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, with operating income rising 43% to achieve a 41.1% margin [13] - The company is projected to deliver 21.5% revenue growth but only a 5.5% increase in EPS, indicating a more gradual earnings expansion [17] Valuation Perspective - AppLovin trades at a forward P/E of 38.55x, slightly below its median, while Arm trades at 65.71x, reflecting high expectations for long-term AI and IoT opportunities [21] - AppLovin's stronger earnings growth and operational efficiency make its valuation more compelling compared to Arm [21] - Investors seeking near-term upside may find AppLovin to be a more attractive option, while Arm remains a strong long-term play in AI chip adoption [22]

Group 1 - AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) is recognized as one of the best communication and media stocks to buy, with recent buy ratings from analysts at Citi and Phillip Securities, although price targets have been adjusted downwards [1][2] - The company reported a significant earnings beat for fiscal Q3 2025, with revenue growth of 68% year-over-year, reaching $1.41 billion, which exceeded estimates by $62.88 million [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.45, surpassing estimates by $0.06, while net income grew by 92% year-over-year to $836 million [2] Group 2 - AppLovin's advertising business is experiencing solid growth, driven by AI-driven targeting and expansion beyond the gaming sector [3] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 revenue to be between $1.57 billion and $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins projected between 82% and 83% [3] - AppLovin provides end-to-end software and AI solutions for businesses to effectively reach, monetize, and grow their audiences [4]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation's stock has declined nearly 35% from its September 2025 highs, indicating a challenging investment environment for those who purchased shares at that time [1] Group 1: Analyst Profile - JR Research is recognized as a Top Analyst by TipRanks and Seeking Alpha, focusing on technology, software, and internet sectors [1] - The analyst identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by strong price action, aiming to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes growth opportunities with significant upside potential, avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting beaten-down stocks [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in identifying high-potential opportunities across various sectors [1] - The focus is on stocks with strong growth potential and turnaround plays, with an investment horizon of 18 to 24 months [1] - The group targets growth stocks with robust fundamentals and attractive valuations, aiming to capitalize on buying momentum [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation's stock has declined nearly 35% from its September 2025 highs, indicating a challenging investment environment for those who purchased shares at that time [1] Group 1: Analyst Profile - JR Research is recognized as a Top Analyst by TipRanks and Seeking Alpha, focusing on technology, software, and internet sectors [1] - The analyst specializes in identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that can potentially generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1] - The investment strategy combines price action analysis with fundamental investing, avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting undervalued ones with recovery potential [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing aims to identify high-potential opportunities across various sectors, focusing on growth stocks with strong fundamentals [1] - The group targets ideas with significant upside potential and contrarian plays, with an investment horizon of 18 to 24 months [1] - The strategy emphasizes capitalizing on growth stocks that exhibit buying momentum and turnaround potential at attractive valuations [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin and Shopify are projected to potentially surpass Palantir's current market value of $369 billion within three years, driven by strong growth in earnings and innovative technologies [1] AppLovin - AppLovin specializes in adtech software utilizing advanced artificial intelligence models, primarily generating revenue from mobile games and recently launching an e-commerce advertising platform that achieved a billion-dollar revenue run rate shortly after its introduction [2] - The company has introduced a self-service dashboard that enhances automation and client onboarding, with expectations of unlocking significant opportunities globally [3] - AppLovin's Axon recommendation engine, which utilizes machine learning, has led to a fourfold increase in ad spend since its launch in mid-2023, and analysts regard it as a top-tier machine learning ad engine [3] - Wall Street anticipates AppLovin's earnings to grow at an annual rate of 53% over the next three years, potentially increasing its market value by 110% to $370 billion while reducing its valuation to 39 times earnings [3][4] Shopify - Shopify offers a comprehensive solution for omnichannel commerce, enabling merchants to manage their operations across various channels from a single platform, including essential services like payment processing and logistics [5][6] - The company has been recognized as a leader in e-commerce and wholesale commerce solutions, securing a strong market position through its user-friendly approach [6] - Shopify employs artificial intelligence in various capacities, including conversational shopping interfaces, workflow automation for merchants, and enhancing developer productivity [7] - Wall Street projects Shopify's earnings to grow at an annual rate of 32% over the next three years, which could lead to a 93% increase in its market value to $370 billion, while its valuation would adjust to 90 times earnings [8] Comparative Analysis - AppLovin is viewed as having a better chance of exceeding Palantir's market value due to its more favorable valuation, while Shopify has a history of exceeding earnings estimates and could capitalize on opportunities in larger enterprises and international markets [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent market volatility has led to a decline in three technology stocks: Vistra, AppLovin, and Oracle [1] Company Summaries - Vistra (NYSE: VST) is experiencing a downward trend in its stock price amid market fluctuations [1] - AppLovin (Nasdaq: APP) is also on a downward slope, reflecting the broader market challenges [1] - Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) is facing similar declines, indicating a tough environment for technology stocks [1]

Core Insights - The article presents a perspective on stock investments, emphasizing the author's unique insights and knowledge in the field [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in shares of companies like GOOG and AMZN, indicating confidence in their future performance [2]. - The analysis aims to provide contrasting views on the portfolio, suggesting a diverse investment strategy [1]. - The article is intended for informational purposes, encouraging readers to conduct their own research before making investment decisions [3].

Core Insights - AppLovin Corp.'s share price reached an all-time high of $525.15 in February before experiencing a decline of over 35% [1] Company Summary - The decline in share price is attributed to a pending class action lawsuit and reports from short sellers [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin (APP) and The Trade Desk (TTD) both reported Q3 2025 earnings that exceeded estimates, but their market reactions diverged significantly, with APP's stock surging 71% over the past year while TTD's stock fell 68% from its highs [1] AppLovin (APP) - AppLovin's revenue increased by 68% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, surpassing the estimate of $1.34 billion [2][4] - The company reported a net income of $836 million, reflecting a 92% increase from the previous year, and achieved an operating margin of 76.8% [2][4] - Operating cash flow reached $1.05 billion, up 91% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4][7] - AppLovin's business model leverages its AXON 2.0 AI engine, providing end-to-end AI solutions for mobile app developers, which contributes to its high operating margin [5] The Trade Desk (TTD) - The Trade Desk's revenue grew by 18% to $739 million, slightly exceeding the estimate of $719 million [3][4] - Operating income rose by 49% to $161 million, but net income growth of 23% lagged behind revenue growth, indicating potential margin pressures [3][4] - Operating cash flow declined by 18% year-over-year to $225 million, and the company's cash position decreased by 47% to $653 million [3][4][7] - TTD's strategy focuses on a self-service programmatic advertising platform for the open internet, which results in a different cost structure reflected in its 21.8% operating margin [6]