User Experience & Functionality - Draftkings Predictions app is predicted to fail before gaining popularity [1] - The app lacks a clear order book [1] - The app blocks certain position types [1] - The app suffers from terrible illiquidity, awful fills, and high fees [1]

Regulatory Compliance - DraftKings launches standalone predictions app under CFTC oversight [1] Product Development - The company is expanding its offerings with a new predictions app [1]

Core Insights - DraftKings has launched a new standalone mobile app called DraftKings Predictions, entering the prediction markets under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [1][2] - The app allows eligible customers to trade on real-world outcomes across various markets, initially focusing on sports and finance, with plans to expand into entertainment and culture [1][2] Product Offering - DraftKings Predictions will offer event contracts available across 38 states, enhancing the company's total addressable market, including states like California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas [2] - The app will connect to multiple exchanges, starting with CME Group, to provide a wide range of markets, including global benchmarks and economic indicators [2] Customer Engagement - To promote responsible engagement, DraftKings has extended its Responsible Gaming best practices to federally regulated event contracts through its Responsible Trading program, which includes features like deposit limits and educational resources [3] - The app is available for eligible U.S. residents and will be featured across major app stores, with promotional opportunities such as a chance to win $1 million and a $25 trade bonus for first trades in certain states [4][5] Company Background - DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company founded in 2012, headquartered in Boston, and offers a range of products including daily fantasy, regulated gaming, and digital media [6] - The company operates in 30 states and has partnerships with major sports leagues, positioning itself as a leader in the real-money gaming space [7]

Core Insights - Brown Advisory Mid-Cap Growth Strategy underperformed its benchmark, the Russell Midcap® Growth Index, which increased approximately 3% in Q3 2025 [1] Company Performance - DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) had a one-month return of 17.41% but lost 13.58% of its value over the last 52 weeks, closing at $34.05 per share on December 17, 2025, with a market capitalization of $16.949 billion [2] - In Q3 2025, DraftKings Inc. generated $1.144 billion in revenue, representing a 4% year-over-year growth [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy initiated a position in DraftKings Inc. to gain exposure to the growing online sports betting and iCasino markets, where it holds a strong duopoly with FanDuel, expecting this position to support expanding unit economics and faster growth as more states legalize online wagering [3]

Core Insights - Prediction markets could reach a trillion dollars in annual trading volume by the end of the decade according to Eilers & Krejcik [1] - Legal and regulatory challenges may delay the growth of prediction markets, but consumer demand and diverse brands are driving the market [2] Market Dynamics - The prediction market space allows users to wager on various events, including culture, politics, and sports, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi gaining popularity [3] - Sports are expected to represent 44% of the long-run volume for prediction markets, indicating a significant growth area [2] Trading Volume Comparison - In prediction markets, both sides of a trade are counted as volume, complicating comparisons with traditional sportsbooks [3] - Eilers & Krejcik developed a formula to translate prediction volume into sportsbook handle, estimating that mature sports prediction markets could support a handle of 60% to 80% of the current online sports betting market [4] Regulatory Landscape - Online sports betting is legal in only 31 states, while prediction markets have launched in all 50 states, providing a broader market opportunity [5] - The introduction of prediction market features by companies like Robinhood indicates a shift in the industry, with traditional sportsbooks recognizing potential disruption [5]

Group 1 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals and holding them indefinitely [1] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperformers while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - The company plans to publish articles on selected companies approximately three times a week, including extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates [1] Group 2 - The company may rate high-quality firms as 'Hold' if their growth opportunities do not meet the required threshold or if the downside risk is deemed too high [1]

Group 1 - Robinhood officially launched a themed event called "YES/NO" on December 16, which is seen as a significant upgrade to its prediction market business and a direct challenge to traditional betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as existing platforms like Kalshi [1] - Bank of America warns that this technological shift by a major tech player like Robinhood could fundamentally alter customer acquisition costs and fee structures across the industry [1] - Robinhood's recent announcement of a joint venture with Susquehanna Investment Group aims to reduce its reliance on Kalshi, potentially posing a competitive threat to DraftKings and FanDuel [1] Group 2 - The competition among Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket in event contract fees is intensifying as they vie for user attention against established sports betting apps like FanDuel and DraftKings, which offer recognizable bonuses and promotions [2] - Robinhood plans to acquire a 90% stake in the derivatives exchange MIAXdx by November 2025, aiming to create a new federally regulated derivatives and prediction market trading platform, with the deal expected to close in early 2026 [2] - This acquisition will enable Robinhood to establish a fully autonomous and vertically integrated trading ecosystem, eliminating third-party platform fees and leveraging "zero-fee" and strong liquidity advantages to mainstream event contracts for retail investors [2] Group 3 - The new exchange will be managed by a joint venture, with Robinhood as the controlling party and Susquehanna acting as the liquidity provider from day one, aiming to expand Robinhood's rapidly growing "prediction contract" business [3] - Unlike traditional fixed-odds betting, prediction markets offer real-time pricing based on peer-to-peer pricing, providing more betting options on events that traditional bookmakers cannot cover [3] - Robinhood's prediction market business has seen rapid growth, with 9 billion contracts traded and over 1 million users participating since its launch, contributing to an annualized revenue exceeding $100 million in less than a year [3]

Core Insights - DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is recognized as one of the top sin stocks to invest in for 2026, with Benchmark maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of $37 for the company's shares as of December 1 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In New York's sports betting industry, there has been a year-over-year growth with handle increasing by 12.7% and revenue rising by 16.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - DraftKings has reported a handle increase of 15.6% year-over-year and a revenue growth of 13.1%, despite a hold rate of 8.3% which is lower than the state average of 9.3% [2] - The overall positive trend in New York's sports betting market is attributed to a balanced model where FanDuel aids margin expansion while DraftKings drives handle growth [2] Group 2: Expansion Plans - DraftKings is set to expand its sports betting operations into Missouri, having received a temporary mobile sports wagering license from the Missouri Gaming Commission, allowing it to operate independently [3] - With this expansion, Missouri becomes the 29th state where DraftKings offers regulated sports betting [3] Group 3: Company Overview - DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company that provides sports betting, digital lottery courier services, daily fantasy sports, and online casino games including roulette, slot machines, blackjack, and baccarat [4]

Core Insights - DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) reported a 25% year-over-year increase in net revenues for Q3, marking the fastest growth since early 2024, highlighting the increasing importance of iGaming in the company's growth narrative [1][9] iGaming Performance - The company experienced significant improvements in both active customers and revenue per customer, driven by enhanced gross gaming revenue and better promotional strategies [2] - Ongoing product upgrades and content expansion contributed to the quarter's success, with a focus on innovative slot and jackpot development [3] - iGaming is seen as a more stable revenue source compared to the volatile sportsbook results, suggesting a potential second growth engine for the company [4] Competitive Landscape - Flutter Entertainment, parent of FanDuel, poses a significant competitive threat with its strong online casino presence and proprietary game development [5] - MGM Resorts International, through BetMGM, also represents a major competitor with a robust game library and established customer base [6] Financial Performance - DKNG shares have declined by 18.5% over the past three months, compared to a 9.5% decline in the industry [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.41X, indicating a discount relative to industry peers [12]

Core Viewpoint - DraftKings is seen as a potential rebound investment for 2026, but its success will depend on the execution of prediction markets and achieving sustainable profitability [1]. Financial Performance - DraftKings stock has rallied 21% in the last month but is still down 8% year-to-date [1]. - The company faced downward revisions of its 2025 guidance due to bettors' success in football, which impacted financial results [4]. Prediction Markets - Prediction markets, particularly Kalshi, have created significant headline risk for DraftKings and its competitors in 2025, leading to a decrease in market capitalization [5]. - DraftKings plans to launch its DraftKings Predictions mobile app following its acquisition of Railbird Technologies, which could influence its stock performance in 2026 [7]. Competitive Landscape - DraftKings is entering the event contracts space, which may offer shorter payback periods and better margins compared to traditional sports wagering [9]. - The company aims to reduce customer acquisition costs in the event contracts market, potentially enhancing profitability [9]. Pricing Strategy - DraftKings must execute effectively in the prediction markets by offering competitive products compared to Kalshi [10]. - The company has been able to provide better odds than prediction markets during the NFL season, which could benefit its event contracts platform [12].