Core Viewpoint - Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) is viewed as a hold by Jim Cramer, who acknowledges its recent performance but suggests limited upside potential in the short term [1]. Company Overview - Dow Inc. develops chemical and material products utilized in various sectors including packaging, construction, transportation, and consumer industries [1]. Recent Performance - The last quarter was reported positively by CEO Jim Fitterling, indicating that the stock has the potential to increase further [1]. Investment Recommendations - Cramer suggests holding onto Dow Inc. stock, indicating confidence in its stability and potential for growth [1]. - Cramer also mentions Solstice, a recent spin-off from Honeywell, as a promising investment opportunity [1]. Comparative Analysis - While Dow Inc. shows potential, there are AI stocks identified as having greater upside potential and lower downside risk, suggesting a shift in focus for investors seeking high returns [1].

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance following a mixed close on Thursday, with major indices experiencing fluctuations [1][3] - The Dow Jones increased by over 600 points, indicating a rotation out of expensive tech stocks, while overall risk appetite remained strong after the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest-rate cut [1][2] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.17%, while the two-year bond was at 3.53%, with a 73.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates [2] Company Performance - **Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST)**: Experienced a 0.52% decline in premarket trading despite better-than-expected financial results for Q1 fiscal 2026, maintaining a weaker price trend [7] - **Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)**: Dropped 5.18% due to disappointing guidance regarding shrinking gross margins and a higher tax rate for fiscal 2026, but maintains a stronger price trend overall [7] - **Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU)**: Jumped 9.49% after exceeding Q3 expectations and raising full-year guidance, despite a weaker long-term price trend [16] - **RH (NYSE:RH)**: Increased by 4.26% despite mixed Q3 results, reporting earnings of $1.71 per share, missing estimates, but revenue of $883.81 million beat expectations [16] - **Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY)**: Surged 28.11% following the announcement of a new product line, maintaining a stronger long-term price trend [16] Sector Insights - Analysts suggest a rotation from Communication Services and Information Technology into sectors with more upside potential, specifically highlighting Financials, Industrials, and Utilities as favored sectors [12][14] - The anticipated GDP growth and moderating inflation are expected to create a favorable environment for risk assets, particularly equities [12]

Market Overview - Three of the four major indexes reached new closing highs, with the Dow gaining +646 points (+1.34%), S&P 500 increasing +14 points (+0.21%), and Russell 2000 rising +31 points (+1.21%) [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced a slight dip of -60 points (-0.25%) due to concerns over Oracle's recent performance, indicating potential challenges in the AI sector [2] Company Earnings Reports - Broadcom (AVGO) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $1.95 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $1.87, with revenues of $18.02 billion surpassing the $17.50 billion estimate. AI semiconductor revenue grew +74% year over year [3] - Broadcom raised its fiscal Q1 revenue guidance to $19.1 billion, with AI semiconductor business expected to generate $8.2 billion next year, doubling from the previous year [4] - Costco (COST) reported mixed fiscal Q1 results, with earnings of $4.50 per share exceeding the $4.26 consensus, but sales of $65.98 billion fell short of the $67.33 billion estimate, leading to a marginal decline in shares [5] - Lululemon (LULU) shares rose over +10% following a strong Q3 earnings report, with earnings of $2.39 per share and revenues of $2.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.48 billion [6]

Core Insights - The "January effect" for small-cap stocks is now observed to begin in December, indicating a shift in market behavior [1] Group 1 - Small-cap stocks are experiencing a seasonal trend where their performance improves earlier than traditionally expected [1] - This change may suggest a new investment strategy for those focusing on small-cap equities [1] - The phenomenon could impact overall market dynamics as investors adjust their strategies in response to this trend [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Citi has reduced the price target for Dow Inc. to $23 from $25, maintaining a Neutral rating due to a weakening polyethylene market [1] - The firm has also lowered estimates for other chemical companies, indicating price discounting in polyethylene and a negative outlook for PE-exposed companies in 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Dow Inc. reported net sales of $10 billion, with growth in the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment [2] - The company achieved a $1 billion reduction in CapEx spending and completed a strategic partnership with Macquarie, selling a 49% equity stake in U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets for approximately $3 billion [2] - Dow's operating cash flow was $1.1 billion, an increase of $330 million year-over-year, with $4.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $10 billion in available liquidity [3] - The company returned $249 million to shareholders through dividends in the quarter [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Dow Inc. is an American chemical company that produces coatings, industrial intermediates, plastics, and related products [4]

Core Insights - Dow Inc. closed at $23.11, reflecting a +1.09% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.09% [1] - The materials science sector saw a 3.44% gain over the past month, slightly trailing the Basic Materials sector's 3.88% gain and outperforming the S&P 500's 1.89% gain [1] Earnings Performance - Upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with a consensus estimate projecting revenue of $9.53 billion, indicating an 8.45% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - For the annual period, earnings are expected to be -$0.99 per share and revenue at $40.03 billion, reflecting declines of -157.89% and -6.82% respectively from the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Changes in analyst estimates for Dow Inc. are crucial as they reflect the evolving business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [3] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has a strong track record, with 1 stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 1988 [5] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for Dow Inc. has increased by 0.55%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Industry Context - The Chemical - Diversified industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, currently ranks 217 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 13% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) provides retail investors and financial advisors with access to a diversified range of cryptocurrencies, marking a significant development in the cryptocurrency investment landscape [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Details - BITW includes 10 digital assets: Bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana, Chainlink, Litecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot, making it the first ETF from a major crypto asset manager to include Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot [2]. - The ETF was converted from an index fund and starts trading with $1.5 billion in assets, offering advantages such as increased trading flexibility, tax efficiency, and lower fees compared to traditional funds [4]. - BITW allocates 90% of its holdings to Bitcoin, ether, Solana, and XRP, capping the combined weight of all other tokens at 10%, and will be rebalanced monthly [8]. Group 2: Market Context - The ETF launch follows the SEC's approval of several spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, prompting asset managers to seek approvals for ETFs tracking a broader range of digital assets [5]. - The cryptocurrency market has recently experienced pullbacks, with Bitcoin trading as low as $85,000, over 30% off its record high of approximately $126,000 [6]. - Despite the risks associated with smaller coins, the ETF offers potential diversification similar to broad index funds, appealing to investors seeking comprehensive exposure to digital assets [7]. Group 3: Company Background - Bitwise manages over $15 billion in client assets and offers a suite of more than 40 digital asset investment products [9].

European Companies - BASF Group reported Q3 2025 sales of €15.23 billion (approximately $17.7 billion), down 3.2% year-on-year from €15.739 billion. Operating profit (EBIT) increased by 11.4% to €278 million, while net profit fell by 40% to €172 million [1] - LyondellBasell's Q3 2025 sales and other revenues were $7.727 billion, down from $8.604 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $890 million compared to a net profit of $573 million in the same period last year [2] - INEOS Group Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of €3.418 billion (approximately $3.97 billion), down from €4.273 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased to €113 million from €339 million, with a net loss of €56.5 million compared to a profit of €283 million last year [3] - Evonik Group's Q3 2025 sales were €3.391 billion (approximately $3.94 billion), down from €3.832 billion year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA fell to €448 million from €577 million, with a net loss of €106 million compared to a net profit of €223 million [4] - Covestro reported Q3 2025 sales of €3.171 billion (approximately $3.68 billion), down 12% from €3.603 billion. EBITDA decreased by 15.7% to €242 million, with a net loss of €47 million compared to a net profit of €33 million last year [5] - DSM-Firmenich's Q3 2025 sales were €3.07 billion (approximately $3.57 billion), down 5% from €3.244 billion. Adjusted EBITDA remained stable at €540 million [6] - Sika reported Q3 2025 sales of CHF 3.078 billion (approximately $3.4 billion), down 3.8% from CHF 3.915 billion. EBITDA decreased to CHF 1.645 billion from CHF 1.702 billion, with net profit falling to CHF 871 million from CHF 923 million [8] - Henkel's Q3 2025 sales fell by 6.3% to €5.147 billion, with the adhesives technology division reporting sales of approximately $3.145 billion, down 3.3% year-on-year [9] - Arkema's Q3 2025 sales were €2.187 billion (approximately $2.54 billion), down 8.6% from €2.394 billion. EBITDA fell by 23.8% to €310 million, with adjusted net profit down 53.6% to €78 million [10] - Syensqo reported Q3 2025 sales of €1.517 billion (approximately $1.76 billion), down 7.1% from €1.633 billion. EBITDA decreased by 12.8% to €326 million, with net profit down 31.8% to €110 million [11] - LANXESS reported Q3 2025 sales of €1.338 billion (approximately $1.55 billion), down 16.3% from €1.598 billion. EBITDA fell by 35.6% to €105 million, with a net loss of €77 million compared to a profit of €1 million last year [12] - Solvay's Q3 2025 sales were €1.044 billion (approximately $1.21 billion), down 9.7% from €1.156 billion. EBITDA decreased by 10.3% to €232 million, with net profit down 15% to €88 million [13] - Clariant reported Q3 2025 sales of CHF 906 million (approximately $1.03 billion), down 9% from CHF 991 million. EBITDA increased by 14% to CHF 159 million [14] Asian Companies - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥79.185 billion (approximately $11.2 billion), down 5.67% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥286 million, up 1427.94% [15] - SABIC's Q3 2025 revenue was SAR 34.333 billion (approximately $9.147 billion), down from SAR 36.88 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased to SAR 1.663 billion from SAR 2.477 billion, with net profit falling to SAR 1.135 billion from SAR 1.763 billion [16] - Hengli Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥53.496 billion (approximately $7.67 billion), down 17.98% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥1.972 billion, up 81.47% [17] - Wanhua Chemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥53.324 billion (approximately $7.54 billion), up 5.52% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥3.035 billion, up 3.96% [18] - Mitsubishi Chemical Group reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,799.124 billion (approximately $11.5 billion), down 10.5% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 19.6% to ¥86.489 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders up 169% to ¥110.132 billion [19] - Taiwan Chemical announced Q3 2025 revenue of NT$69.576 billion (approximately $2.22 billion), down from NT$86.899 billion. The company reported a net profit of NT$1.78 billion, compared to a net loss of NT$1.918 billion last year [20] - Nanya Plastics reported Q3 2025 revenue of NT$64.2 billion (approximately $2.04 billion), down from NT$66.4 billion. Operating profit increased to NT$1.04 billion from NT$990 million, with net profit rising to NT$4 billion from NT$490 million [21] - Formosa Plastics reported Q3 2025 revenue of NT$41.718 billion (approximately $1.33 billion), down from NT$50.492 billion. The company reported a net loss of NT$2.685 billion, compared to a loss of NT$3.092 billion last year [22] - Asahi Kasei Corporation reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,486.368 billion (approximately $9.54 billion), down slightly from ¥1,490.334 billion. Operating profit increased to ¥108.915 billion from ¥107.454 billion, while net profit decreased to ¥60.248 billion from ¥66.266 billion [23] - Dongfang Shenghong reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥31.245 billion (approximately $4.5 billion), down 11.91% year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of ¥260 million [24] - Shin-Etsu Chemical reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,284.522 billion (approximately $8.24 billion), up 1.4% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 17.7% to ¥333.935 billion, with net profit down 12.3% to ¥257.844 billion [25] - Toray reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,234.31 billion (approximately $7.92 billion), down 4.6% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 19.1% to ¥642.99 billion, with net profit down 33.5% to ¥369.35 billion [26] - Hengyi Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥27.925 billion (approximately $3.95 billion), down 7.07% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥4.4079 million, up 102.21% [27] - LG Chem reported Q3 2025 sales of ₩111.962 trillion (approximately $76.24 billion), down 11.3% from ₩126.2 trillion. Operating profit increased by 38.9% to ₩6.797 trillion, while net profit fell to ₩4.470 trillion from ₩10.13 trillion [28] American Companies - Dow reported Q3 2025 net sales of $9.973 billion, down from $10.879 billion year-on-year. Net profit attributable to common shareholders was $62 million, down from $214 million [36] - Ecolab reported Q3 2025 net sales of $4.165 billion, up from $3.999 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 27% to $760 million, with net profit down 21% to $585 million [37] - DuPont reported Q3 2025 net sales of $3.072 billion, up from $2.862 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $123 million, compared to a profit of $455 million last year [39] - Westlake Corporation reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.838 billion, down from $3.117 billion. The company reported an operating loss of $766 million, compared to a profit of $180 million last year [40] - IFF reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.694 billion, down from $2.925 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 9% to $226 million, with net profit down to $40 million from $58 million [41] - Celanese reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.419 billion, down from $2.648 billion. The company reported an operating loss of $1.275 billion, compared to a profit of $245 million last year [42] - Eastman Chemical Company reported Q3 2025 sales of $2.202 billion, down from $2.464 billion. Net profit attributable to the company was $47 million, down from $180 million [43] - Huntsman Corporation reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.46 billion, down from $1.54 billion. The company reported a net loss of $25 million, compared to a loss of $33 million last year [44] Industrial Gases - Linde plc reported Q3 2025 sales of $8.615 billion, up from $8.356 billion year-on-year. Operating profit increased to $2.367 billion from $2.086 billion, with net profit rising to $1.929 billion from $1.55 billion [45] - Air Liquide reported Q3 2025 revenue of €6.599 billion (approximately $7.66 billion), down from €6.762 billion year-on-year [46] - Air Products & Chemicals reported Q4 2025 sales of $3.167 billion, down from $3.188 billion. The company reported an operating profit of $16.8 million, down from $242.4 million last year, with a net profit of $4.9 million compared to $195 million [47] Crop Science - Syngenta Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of $6.4 billion, down 6% year-on-year. EBITDA increased by 28% to $900 million [48] - Bayer Group reported Q3 2025 sales of €9.66 billion, down from €9.968 billion. EBIT loss was €543 million, compared to a loss of €382.2 million last year, with a net loss of €963 million compared to a loss of €4.183 billion last year [49] - Corteva, Inc. reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.618 billion, up from $2.326 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $320 million, compared to a loss of $524 million last year [50] Fertilizers - Nutrien reported Q3 2025 sales of $6.007 billion, up from $5.348 billion year-on-year. Net profit increased to $469 million from $25 million [51] - Yara International ASA reported Q3 2025 revenue of $4.108 billion, up from $3.654 billion. Operating profit increased to $470 million from $309 million, with net profit rising to $320 million from $286 million [52] - The Mosaic Company reported Q3 2025 net sales of $3.452 billion, up from $2.811 billion. Operating profit increased to $340 million from $115 million, with net profit rising to $411 million from $122 million [53] - CF Industries reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.659 billion, up from $1.37 billion. Net profit attributable to common shareholders was $353 million, compared to $276 million last year [54] Coatings - PPG Industries reported Q3 2025 net sales of $4.082 billion, up from $4.032 billion year-on-year, with net profit remaining stable at $444 million [55] - AkzoNobel reported Q3 2025 revenue of €2.547 billion (approximately $2.96 billion), down from €2.668 billion. The company reported an operating loss of €29 million, compared to a profit of €259 million last year, with a net loss of €194 million compared to a profit of €163 million last year [56] - Nippon Paint Holdings reported YTD revenue of ¥1,318.378 billion (approximately $8.467 billion), up 7.8% year-on-year. Operating profit increased by 36.4% to ¥190.579 billion, with net profit rising by 38.6% to ¥134.336 billion [57] - Sherwin-Williams reported Q3 2025 net sales of $6.358 billion, up from $6.163 billion. Net profit increased to $833 million from $806 million, with the paint retail group reporting sales of $3.837 billion, up 5.1% [58] - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.288 billion, down from $1.32 billion. Operating profit increased to $204 million from $193 million, with net profit rising to $110 million from $101 million [59] - Three Trees reported YTD revenue of ¥9.392 billion (approximately $1.33 billion), up 2.69% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥744 million, up 81.22% [60]

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up nearly 13% year to date, with leading stocks not being pure AI plays but rather companies like Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs, and IBM [1][2][3] Caterpillar (CAT) - Caterpillar has seen a significant stock increase of approximately 66.3% year to date, driven by strong global demand for construction and mining equipment [4] - Despite a decline in adjusted profits to $4.95 per share on $17.6 billion in sales, sales rose by 10% due to higher end-user equipment volumes [5] - The U.S. infrastructure push and lower interest rates have contributed to a substantial backlog, indicating sustained revenue visibility [6] - Caterpillar is also pivoting towards AI-enabling infrastructure, with partnerships that position it as a beneficiary of the tech boom [7] - Analysts view Caterpillar as a hybrid play, justifying a forward earnings multiple of 27 times [8] Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs ranks second among Dow leaders with a stock increase of over 49% year to date, attributed to a rebound in dealmaking and economic stability [9] - The third-quarter earnings were $12.25 per share on $15.2 billion in revenue, surpassing estimates [9][10] - The firm has advised on over $1 trillion in announced M&A volume this year, benefiting from sustained trading revenues and a healthy growth outlook [10] - Goldman Sachs' institutional focus allows it to capture upside from corporate optimism, driving shares to an all-time high of $856 [11] IBM (IBM) - IBM has achieved a 40% year-to-date gain, with shares nearing record closing highs of approximately $308 [12] - The turnaround is driven by software and consulting segments, with third-quarter revenue up 7% to $16.3 billion at constant currency [12] - The watsonx AI platform and Red Hat integration have boosted bookings and hybrid cloud adoption, with a consulting backlog of $31 billion [13] - IBM is also making strides in quantum computing and has raised full-year guidance to 5% growth and $14 billion in free cash flow [14]

Company Overview - Dow Inc. operates as a major global commodity chemical producer, focusing on olefins and polyolefins, with approximately 75% of its asset base concentrated in the U.S. and significant exposure to export markets, particularly EMEA and India [2] Financial Performance - Dow's annual EBITDA is estimated to be around $2.5–$3 billion, which is insufficient to sustainably cover both capital expenditures and interest expenses, leading to reliance on asset sales [5] - The company recently completed a $3 billion partial divestiture of U.S. midstream assets, which has improved liquidity to $4.6 billion, although further dividend reductions may be necessary [5] Profitability and Market Position - Dow's core profitability is primarily derived from olefins and polyolefins, with a higher sensitivity to global trade dynamics due to its olefin exposure [3] - The company's Intermediates segment, which includes propylene oxide and ethylene oxide chains, is smaller compared to peers, limiting its exposure to construction and vehicle fuels [3] Capital Allocation Strategy - Management employs a disciplined, countercyclical capital allocation strategy, investing more during downturns and less during high-margin cycles, reflecting an understanding of the chemical industry's cyclicality [4] Risks and Liabilities - Dow faces significant environmental and pension liabilities, contributing to structural risk [6] - The company's financial flexibility is constrained, with liquidity pressures stemming from an oversized dividend and limited operating cash flow coverage [4]