Fortinet, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT) Goldman Sachs Fireside Chat Conference Call August 25, 2025 10:30 AM ET Company Participants Christiane Ohlgart - Chief Accounting Officer, CFO and Principal Financial & Accounting Officer Ken Xie - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO Conference Call Participants Gabriela Borges - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Gabriela Borges All right. Fantastic. I think we have critical mass. I'm going to kick off with our disclosures and Fortinet's disclosures as well, and then we can o ...

Core Viewpoint - Kirby McInerney LLP is investigating potential claims against Fortinet, Inc. regarding possible violations of federal securities laws and unlawful business practices [1][3]. Financial Performance - On August 6, 2025, Fortinet reported its Q2 2025 financial results, indicating that it was "approximately 40% to 50% of the way through the 2026 firewall upgrade cycle" based on remaining active units and service contracts [3]. - The company provided weaker than expected revenue guidance for Q3 2025, projecting revenue between $1.67 billion and $1.73 billion [3]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the financial results announcement, Fortinet's share price fell by $21.28, or approximately 22%, from $96.58 on August 6, 2025, to close at $75.30 on August 7, 2025 [4].

Core Insights - Fortinet expanded its share repurchase program by $1 billion, raising the total authorized amount to $9.25 billion and extending the program through February 28, 2027, reflecting management's confidence in the company's financial health and future prospects [1][20] - The company reported strong second-quarter 2025 results with revenues of $1.63 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, and billings of $1.78 billion, up 15% [3] - Fortinet's balance sheet is robust, with $3.37 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2025, an increase from $2.88 billion at the end of 2024, providing financial flexibility for the buyback program [3] - The company's subscription-heavy revenue model contributes to consistent cash flows, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 33% in Q2 2025, despite increased R&D spending [4] - Fortinet's SASE strategy is gaining traction, with unified SASE building growth of 18%, accounting for 25% of total business, and security service edge building growth exceeding 110% [5] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is 63 cents per share, reflecting a 3.3% increase over the past 30 days [6] - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $284.1 million, lower than the previous year due to increased capital expenditures, but still indicates strong cash generation capabilities [7] - Fortinet shares have risen 15.3% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 12.5% return [13] Competitive Landscape - Fortinet faces intense competition from established players like CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Check Point Software, which are aggressively pursuing market share [12] - The company's premium valuation metrics, including a Price-to-Book ratio of 29.73x, suggest limited upside potential at current levels [8][10] - The current hardware refresh cycle raises questions about sustainable revenue growth once the upgrade wave concludes [7][21] Strategic Initiatives - Fortinet has invested significantly in AI capabilities, holding over 500 AI patents, which positions the company as a leader in AI-driven cybersecurity innovation [17] - Recent developments include enhancements to the AI-powered workspace security suite and the evolution of FortiAnalyzer into a comprehensive AI-driven security operations platform [18][19] - The buyback program extension allows management to optimize capital allocation based on market conditions while preserving resources for potential acquisitions and organic growth [20]

Fortinet (FTNT) Fireside Chat Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Fortinet (FTNT) - **Event**: Fireside Chat on August 25, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Cybersecurity, specifically focusing on firewall technology and secure networking solutions Core Points and Arguments 1. **Quarterly Performance**: Fortinet reported strong results in Q2, beating revenue expectations and achieving record margins, with significant growth in unified SASE, AI-driven secure operations, and OT security, all growing over 20% year-over-year [3][4] 2. **Enterprise Growth**: The company experienced over 50% year-over-year growth in deals exceeding $1 million, indicating strong enterprise demand [4] 3. **Sales Capacity**: There is a recognition that increasing sales capacity could further drive growth, suggesting a need for more aggressive hiring [5] 4. **Firewall Refresh Cycle**: The 2026 cohort is highlighted as a significant opportunity for growth, with a focus on technology upgrades and end-of-life products impacting all market segments [6][8] 5. **Market Dynamics**: The refresh cycle is influenced by various factors, including technology upgrades and customer deployment practices, which can create uncertainty in forecasting [10][12] 6. **Visibility Challenges**: Fortinet acknowledges limitations in visibility regarding the lower-end market, which complicates the assessment of the refresh cycle [10][12] 7. **Market Share Positioning**: Fortinet believes its market position has improved, especially against smaller competitors, and it continues to gain market share in secure networking and unified SASE [34][35] 8. **Customer Needs**: The demand for additional functionalities beyond traditional firewalls is driving upgrades, as customers require more computing power for new security functions [37][38] 9. **Growth Projections**: Fortinet aims for a revenue growth target of over 12% CAGR over the next three to five years, with expectations to outpace market growth in secure networking and unified SASE segments [60][66] 10. **Subscription Revenue**: Subscription revenue has been decelerating, but there are opportunities for growth through enhanced product offerings and integration of acquired technologies [70][72] Additional Important Insights - **Acquisition Strategy**: Fortinet prioritizes internal innovation over acquisitions, emphasizing the importance of integration post-acquisition to avoid operational inefficiencies [76][78] - **SASE Deployment**: The integration of SASE functions into existing infrastructure is seen as a long-term solution, providing flexibility for customers in how they process data [54][55] - **Cyclicality of Business**: Fortinet's diversified portfolio across various verticals and geographies positions it to be less cyclical compared to competitors, with steady growth driven by increasing cybersecurity needs [82][85] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Fortinet Fireside Chat, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and strategic outlook in the cybersecurity industry.

Core Insights - The cybersecurity industry is experiencing growth due to the increasing demand for robust solutions as businesses migrate to the cloud and support remote work [1][2] - Major companies in the cybersecurity space have a competitive advantage by leveraging data for machine learning and AI applications, leading to better features and customer retention [2] - Not all cybersecurity stocks present attractive investment opportunities, with some being overpriced [3] Company Analysis - CrowdStrike faced a significant setback due to a flawed software update that caused widespread IT outages, negatively impacting its earnings and operating margin, which fell from 23% to 18% year-over-year [5][6] - Despite a 42% year-over-year sales growth in its most recent quarter, CrowdStrike's stock is considered overpriced, trading at around 26 times trailing revenue and 18 times next year's sales estimates [7][8][9] - In contrast, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as attractive investment options, with Fortinet's annual recurring revenue growing by 22% and its security operations platform by 35% [12] - Palo Alto's next-generation security revenue grew by 32%, contributing to a 16% overall revenue increase and a 340 basis point expansion in operating margin [13] - Both Fortinet and Palo Alto are trading at more favorable valuations compared to CrowdStrike, with Fortinet at less than 10 times sales and Palo Alto at a price-to-sales ratio of 15 [16]

Core Viewpoint - Fortinet, Inc. is under investigation for potential securities fraud and unlawful business practices following disappointing financial results for Q2 2025, which led to a significant drop in stock price [1][3]. Financial Performance - On August 6, 2025, Fortinet reported disappointing second quarter 2025 financial results, causing confusion among investors regarding the company's product revenue growth and billings [3]. - The company indicated that 40% to 50% of its accelerated firewall refresh, estimated at $450 million and involving 650,000 units, was completed, yet this did not translate into expected revenue growth [3]. - Following the announcement, Fortinet's stock price fell by $21.28 per share, or 22.03%, closing at $75.30 per share on August 7, 2025 [3]. Legal Investigation - Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of Fortinet investors regarding possible securities fraud or other unlawful business practices by the company and its officers or directors [1]. - Investors are encouraged to contact Pomerantz LLP for more information regarding the class action [2]. Company Background - Pomerantz LLP is recognized as a leading firm in corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation, with a history of recovering multimillion-dollar damages for victims of securities fraud and corporate misconduct [4].

Core Insights - Fortinet has partnered with Tepper Sports & Entertainment to enhance cybersecurity across its operations, including the NFL's Carolina Panthers and MLS's Charlotte FC [1][4] - The deployment of Fortinet's Unified SASE and Security Fabric solutions aims to simplify operations while providing robust security for users in various environments [1][4] Group 1: Security Enhancement - Tepper Sports & Entertainment has significantly improved its security posture without increasing the workload for its support team by utilizing Fortinet's solutions [2][4] - The organization required a unified security solution to manage security needs across multiple facilities and a mobile workforce, which Fortinet provided [3][4] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Transitioning to Fortinet's unified platform has led to improved threat visibility and operational efficiency, reducing complexity for a small IT staff [6] - The integration of Fortinet's solutions allows for consistent protection and policy enforcement for both on-site and remote users [5][6] Group 3: Future-Ready Infrastructure - Fortinet's Unified SASE and AI-powered Security Services enable Tepper Sports & Entertainment to meet evolving security demands while simplifying management for a lean IT team [4][6] - The organization has extended its Fortinet deployment into Microsoft Azure, ensuring uniform security controls across cloud and on-premises environments [5]

Core Insights - Fortinet (FTNT) is experiencing strong momentum, with billings growing 15% year-over-year in Q2 to $1.78 billion, following a 13.5% increase in Q1, indicating a robust demand pipeline and positive outlook for future quarters [1][9] - Unified SASE and Security Operations (SecOps) solutions are key contributors to this growth, expanding 21% and 31% year-over-year, respectively, and now accounting for approximately 35% of total billings [2][9] - Management has raised the full-year billings outlook for fiscal 2025 to a range of $7.325-$7.475 billion, reflecting confidence in ongoing demand driven by cloud security and enterprise adoption [3][4][9] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, Fortinet's billings guidance suggests a 13.3% growth at the midpoint, supported by strong cloud security demand and a healthy renewal cycle [4] - Services billings increased by 17% year-over-year, marking the strongest growth in six quarters, which enhances the long-term revenue base [3] Competitive Landscape - Fortinet faces significant competition from Palo Alto Networks (PANW), which is enhancing its market position with advanced security solutions, reporting a 34% increase in cloud ARR to $5.09 billion [5] - Check Point Software (CHKP) is also solidifying its position in network security, experiencing double-digit growth in product and license revenues due to strong demand for its solutions [6] Valuation and Market Performance - Year-to-date, Fortinet shares have declined by 14.6%, underperforming the Zacks Security industry's 7.2% gain and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 13.7% rise [7] - Fortinet's current Price/Book ratio is 30X, which is higher than the industry average of 20.15X, indicating potential overvaluation [10] - The consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $2.51 per share, reflecting a 5.91% year-over-year growth [12]

Core Insights - The cybersecurity market is projected to grow significantly, reaching $351.9 billion by 2030, with Fortinet and Qualys as key players addressing critical security needs [1][2] - Organizations are increasing their security budgets by 15% in 2025 due to escalating cyber threats [2] Fortinet (FTNT) - Fortinet reported a revenue growth of 14% year-over-year to $1.63 billion in Q2 2025, with billings increasing by 15% to $1.78 billion [4] - The company maintains a strong market position with its Security Fabric platform and leadership in network firewalls, but faces challenges in sustaining growth momentum [4][5] - Following its earnings announcement, Fortinet's stock dropped 17% in after-hours trading, indicating investor concerns about future growth despite beating earnings estimates [5] - The guidance for Q3 revenues is between $1.67 billion and $1.73 billion, suggesting a moderation in growth trajectory [5] - The consensus mark for 2025 earnings is $2.51 per share, indicating a 5.91% year-over-year growth [6] Qualys (QLYS) - Qualys demonstrated a 10% revenue growth to $164.1 million in Q2 2025, with 82% GAAP gross margins, showcasing operational efficiency [7] - The launch of the AI-powered Risk Operations Center positions Qualys as a leader in next-generation threat management, with the ability to reduce risk exposure by 85% and accelerate remediation by 70% [7] - Qualys raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $656-662 million, representing 8-9% growth, while maintaining strong profitability metrics [9] - The consensus mark for 2025 earnings is $6.35 per share, indicating a 3.59% year-over-year growth [10] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Fortinet trades at a P/E ratio of 30.18, while Qualys trades at a more attractive P/E ratio of 19.88, indicating better relative value for Qualys [11][8] - Fortinet's stock has dropped over 25% from its 52-week high and is down 14.5% year to date, while Qualys has shown more stability with a decline of 6.8% year to date [14] Conclusion - Qualys is viewed as a more compelling investment opportunity due to its innovative AI-driven platform, superior margins, and attractive valuation [18] - The focus on autonomous risk management positions Qualys for accelerated growth in the face of increasing security threats [18]

Core Insights - Fortinet has enhanced its FortiRecon platform to align with the Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM) framework, integrating various security features to help organizations manage cyber risks effectively [1][4][9] Group 1: FortiRecon Enhancements - The upgraded FortiRecon platform includes features such as dark web monitoring, ransomware intelligence, leaked certificate detection, and vendor risk analysis, along with active exploitation ratings and smart patch prioritization [2][9] - Brand protection tools in FortiRecon can detect and eliminate fake domains, phishing campaigns, rogue mobile apps, and executive impersonations [2][4] - Built-in automated playbooks streamline investigation and response processes, reducing reaction time for Security Operations Center (SOC) teams [3][5] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Fortinet's integration of FortiRecon with its Security Fabric, including tools like FortiGate and FortiSOAR, enables faster and automated incident response [5][11] - The alignment with Gartner's CTEM pillars positions FortiRecon as a comprehensive solution for proactive cyber exposure management, enhancing Fortinet's competitive edge in the exposure management market [4][11] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Fortinet faces strong competition from Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike, all of which offer advanced automation and AI-driven capabilities in their security solutions [6][10] - Microsoft's Defender EASM leverages extensive cloud infrastructure for asset discovery and vulnerability insights [7] - Palo Alto Networks' Cortex Xpanse focuses on real-time scanning and exposure mapping, while CrowdStrike's Falcon Exposure Management emphasizes AI-powered prioritization and integration with its security tools [8][10]