Group 1 - Home Depot and Lowe's are expected to report slight sales growth in their upcoming quarterly earnings, providing insight into market conditions and consumer spending on home improvement and DIY projects [1] - The companies face higher raw material costs due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, but a temporary pause on tariffs for Chinese goods may offer short-term relief [1] - The actual tariff rate borne by American consumers has surged to 17.9%, the highest level since 1934, adding pressure to household budgets [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict Home Depot's same-store sales will grow by 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to a decline of 1.3% in the same period last year [3] - Lowe's is expected to see a 1% increase in same-store sales, up from a 1.1% decline in the previous year [4] - The stock prices of Lowe's and Home Depot have dropped approximately 16% and over 11% respectively in the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 index has risen by 15% [3] Group 3 - Demand for home improvement is anticipated to be led by professional customers, while DIY customers are expected to engage in smaller projects [6] - Home Depot and Lowe's are increasing their focus on professional contractors and builders to offset weak DIY demand during a sluggish real estate market [6] - Lowe's has made significant acquisitions, including a $1.33 billion purchase of Artisan Design and an almost $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, while Home Depot announced a $4.3 billion acquisition of GMS [6]

Group 1 - Stubborn inflation and skyrocketing home prices are creating uncertainty in the residential property market, impacting consumer discretionary spending [1] - The challenges in the residential property market are affecting the sales of household durable goods and home improvement products and services [1] Group 2 - The analyst has been involved in stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for nearly a decade, focusing on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ stocks, particularly in banks, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1] - The analyst has diversified investments across different industries and market cap sizes, including holdings in US banks, hotels, shipping, and logistics companies [1]

Stubborn inflation and skyrocketing home prices are causing uncertainty in the residential property market. These factors also make it challenging for consumers to sustain their discretionary spending. With that, household durable and home improvement products and servicesI have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistic ...

Earnings Reports - This week features earnings reports from major companies including Nvidia (NVDA), Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowes (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Medtronic (MDT), and PDD Holdings (PDD) [1] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings announcements due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases back to normal levels [3] Expected Price Movements - The expected price range for stocks can be estimated by summing the prices of at-the-money put and call options, using the first expiry date after the earnings date [3] - Specific expected price movements for the week include: - TCOM – 6.2% - HD – 4.4% - PDD – 6.7% - MDT – 3.8% - BIDU – 7.8% - NVDA – 7.7% - PANW – 7.6% - LOW – 5.1% - TGT – 9.9% - WMT – 5.1% [4] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or looking at naked puts [5] - Neutral traders may consider iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [5] - It is advisable to use risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [6] High Implied Volatility Stocks - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap greater than 40 billion, and IV rank greater than 50% [7]

Group 1 - Stifel has lowered the target price for Lowe's from $275 to $230 while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1]

Core Insights - Analysts forecast Lowe's (LOW) will report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1] - Expected revenues are projected to be $20.86 billion, indicating a 3.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.1% over the past 30 days, showing analysts have reappraised their initial projections [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical research indicating a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics - Analysts estimate the total number of stores will reach 1,755, up from 1,747 in the same quarter last year [5] - The estimated total sales floor square footage is projected at 195.65 million, compared to 195.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] - Sales per store are expected to be $11.97 million, an increase from $11.55 million year-over-year [6] - The average store size selling square feet is estimated to be 111.72 thousand, slightly down from 112.00 thousand in the previous year [6] Stock Performance - Lowe's shares have decreased by 4.8% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.4% [6] - With a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), Lowe's is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [6]

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. is set to announce its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 19, with revenue expectations at $20.9 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $2.98, indicating a 3.1% increase from the previous year [1][9] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lowe's revenues stands at $20.9 billion, implying a 3.4% growth from the prior year [1][9] - The consensus mark for earnings has decreased slightly to $2.98 per share, still suggesting a 3.1% increase from the year-ago period [1][9] - Lowe's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, with the last reported quarter outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.4% [2] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - Lowe's third-quarter performance is expected to benefit from its Pro-focused initiatives and the execution of its "Total Home" strategy, with strategic investments in expanding its Pro customer base yielding positive results [3] - Enhanced product assortments, improved in-stock positions, and better service capabilities through loyalty programs and job-site delivery enhancements are likely to support higher transaction volumes [3] - Digital execution remains a significant driver, with investments in technology improving customer experience and operational efficiency, particularly among Pro customers [4] Group 3: Financial Health and Challenges - Lowe's ongoing Perpetual Productivity Improvement initiatives may have contributed to margin enhancement, alongside robust cash generation and prudent capital allocation [5] - However, the company may face challenges from macroeconomic pressures, including higher interest rates and subdued housing turnover, which could temper discretionary spending in the home improvement market [6] - The company's Zacks Rank is 4 (Sell) with an Earnings ESP of -2.23%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Lowe's (LOW) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended October 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Lowe's is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +3.1% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $20.9 billion, which is a 3.6% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.29% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Lowe's is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.23% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with significant predictive power for positive readings only [9][10]. - Lowe's current Zacks Rank is 3 (Hold), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Lowe's exceeded the expected earnings of $4.23 per share by delivering $4.33, resulting in a surprise of +2.36% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Lowe's has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times [14]. Industry Comparison - Home Depot (HD), a competitor in the retail home furnishings industry, is expected to report earnings of $3.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +1.1% [18]. - Home Depot's revenue is anticipated to be $41.08 billion, up 2.2% from the previous year [18].

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's Companies, Inc. will hold its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call on November 19, 2025, at 9 a.m. Eastern time, with a webcast available for investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Lowe's is a FORTUNE® 100 home improvement company, serving approximately 16 million customer transactions weekly, with total fiscal year 2024 sales exceeding $83 billion [4]. - The company employs around 300,000 associates and operates over 1,700 home improvement stores, 530 branches, and 130 distribution centers [4]. - Lowe's is based in Mooresville, N.C., and engages in community support through various programs aimed at safe housing, community improvement, skilled trade development, and disaster relief [4].

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. has significantly underperformed the broader market and sector over the past year, with stock prices declining 4.6% year-to-date and 14.3% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 Index and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund have shown positive returns [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Lowe's reported net sales of approximately $24 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 1.6%, although it slightly missed market expectations. Adjusted EPS increased by 5.6% year-over-year to $4.33, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.4% [4]. - For the full fiscal 2026, analysts project an adjusted EPS of $12.31, representing a 2.6% year-over-year increase. The company has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding bottom-line estimates in the last four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 29 analysts covering Lowe's stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 18 "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," nine "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - Evercore ISI analyst Greg Melich maintained an "In-Line" rating but reduced the price target from $245 to $240. The mean price target of $281.09 indicates a 19.4% premium to current price levels, while the highest target of $325 suggests a potential upside of 38.1% [7].