Core Viewpoint - Netflix is expected to report strong earnings growth and revenue growth in its upcoming fourth-quarter results, with a significant increase in subscriber additions anticipated due to a robust content lineup [5][7]. Financial Performance - Netflix shares have increased by 11% over the past three months, outperforming the broader industry's growth of 5.5% during the same period [2]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings growth of 98.6% and revenue growth of 14.5% for the fourth quarter [5]. - For the full year, revenues are expected to grow at the higher end of the previous guidance of 14-15% year-over-year [9]. Earnings Expectations - Netflix has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a reasonable chance of beating earnings expectations [4]. - The company has a history of delivering an average earnings surprise of 5.73% over the past four quarters [5]. Analyst Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Netflix, with an average brokerage recommendation of 1.91 from 41 firms, including 23 Strong Buy ratings [6]. - The average price target for Netflix is $889.81, with estimates ranging from $650.00 to $1,100.00 [6]. Subscriber Growth - Netflix anticipates higher subscriber additions in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, with expectations for subscriber growth to double from the third quarter [7]. Valuation Metrics - Netflix shares are currently valued with a P/E ratio of 36.70, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.86, but the company has a strong Growth Score of A, justifying its high valuation [10]. ETFs in Focus - Several ETFs with significant allocations to Netflix include MicroSectors FANG+ ETN (10% allocation), Invesco Next Gen Media and Gaming ETF (7.7%), and First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (7.6%) [3][11][15]. - The MicroSectors FANG+ ETN has an asset base of $427.9 million, while the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund has $6.7 billion in assets [12][16].

Group 1: Netflix Earnings Report - The core question for Netflix's earnings report is not whether subscriber numbers will rise, but how high they can go, with expectations for a significant increase in Q4 driven by high-profile events and series premieres [1][4] - Wall Street analysts predict Netflix will add 8.2 million subscribers in Q4, reaching a total of 290.9 million, with some estimates revised upward to over 11.1 million net adds [4][5] - The company plans to shift its focus from reporting subscriber numbers to revenue, operating margin, and audience engagement metrics [4][5] Group 2: Advertising and Revenue Growth - Analysts believe Netflix's advertising business, established two years ago, will become a primary revenue driver by 2026, with a strong lead in the streaming market [6] - Questions during Netflix's earnings call will likely focus on price hikes, advertising growth, and strategies for live sports, including recent acquisitions of sports broadcasting rights [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Disney is adopting a similar streaming strategy, pushing customers towards cheaper, ad-supported options while also addressing password sharing [7] - Disney faces challenges from recent natural disasters impacting its operations, but analysts do not expect significant effects on attendance at Disneyland [8][9] - The failed joint streaming venture Venu Sports, involving Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery, has incurred costs exceeding $50 million, adding financial strain to the companies involved [10][11]

Earnings and Revenue Projections - Netflix forecasts Q4 2024 revenues to increase 15% year over year, reaching $10.12 billion, in line with consensus estimates [1] - The company anticipates earnings of $4.23 per share, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.19 per share, which has declined by 0.5% over the past 30 days [2] - Netflix's Q4 results are expected to benefit from its diversified content portfolio, including localized and foreign-language productions [3] Earnings Estimate Trends - Current Q4 2024 earnings estimate is $4.19 per share, down from $4.21 per share 30 days ago [4] - Next quarter (Q1 2025) earnings estimate is $5.96 per share, down from $6.07 per share 30 days ago [4] - Full-year 2024 earnings estimate is $19.76 per share, unchanged over the past 90 days [4] Earnings Surprise History - Netflix delivered a 6.09% earnings surprise in the last reported quarter [6] - The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 5.73% in the missed quarter [6] Content and Subscriber Growth - Netflix expects higher sequential paid net additions in Q4 due to seasonality and strong content slate [8] - Key Q4 releases include Squid Game S2, Outer Banks S4, Love is Blind S7, and new dramas like Black Doves [9] - Latin American premieres include 100 Years of Solitude and Senna, two of the region's biggest shows [9] - Unscripted offerings include Aaron Rodgers: Enigma and Rhythm + Flow S2 [10] - Film releases include Carry-On, The Six Triple Eight, and Spellbound [10] Operational Performance - Netflix projects Q4 operating margin of 22%, a 5 percentage point improvement year over year [10] - The company's gaming portfolio, including Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy, is enhancing user engagement and attracting new subscribers [11] Regional Revenue Estimates - Asia-Pacific Q4 revenues estimated at $1.15 billion, up 20.4% year over year [13] - Latin America Q4 revenues estimated at $1.23 billion, up 7% quarter over quarter [13] - EMEA Q4 revenues estimated at $3.21 billion, up 15.5% year over year [14] - US and Canada Q4 revenues estimated at $4.49 billion, up 14.2% year over year [14] Market Performance and Valuation - Netflix shares have surged 76.8% in the past year, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector (13.4%) and peers like Apple (21.9%), Amazon (47.2%), and Disney (16.1%) [15] - The company is trading at 36.31X forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year median of 33.82X and the industry average of 26.32X [18] Competitive Landscape - Netflix faces intense competition from Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, Apple TV+, and Amazon Prime Video [12] - The company also competes with traditional linear TV, YouTube, TikTok, and the gaming industry for consumer attention [12]

Group 1 - AMC Networks Inc. reported a 31.0% increase in content licensing and other revenues due to a new content licensing agreement with Netflix [1] - The company may benefit from a decrease in taxes in the United States [1] Group 2 - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and does not provide financial advice [2][3]

Netflix Q4 Earnings Preview - Netflix's Q4 sales are expected to increase 14% to $10.12 billion compared to $8.83 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Q4 EPS is projected to climb 98% to $4.19 versus $2.11 per share a year ago [2] - For fiscal 2024, Netflix is expected to report a 15% increase in total sales to $38.86 billion and a 64% spike in annual earnings to $19.77 per share [2] Earnings Performance History - Netflix has exceeded sales estimates for five consecutive quarters [3] - The company has surpassed earnings expectations in three of its last four quarterly reports with an average EPS surprise of 5.73% [3] - Recent quarterly surprises include 6.09% in Q3 2024, 3.83% in Q2 2024, and 17.07% in Q1 2024 [4] Subscriber Growth - Netflix is expected to add over 7 million subscribers in Q4, reaching a total of 287.48 million subscriptions [5] - This represents a 10% increase from the 260.28 million subscribers at the end of Q3 2024 [5] Valuation Metrics - Netflix currently trades at a 35.6X forward earnings multiple, which is a premium to the S&P 500's 22.2X and Disney's 19X [6] - The stock trades well below its five-year high of 88.5X forward earnings and at a slight discount to the median of 37.4X during this period [6] Market Position - Netflix maintains its position as the streaming leader ahead of Disney [5] - The company's stock has outperformed both the broader market and Disney shares in recent years [6]

Company Overview - Trinity Asset Management was founded by Brian Gilmartin in May 1995, focusing on providing attention and service to individual investors and institutions that were underserved by larger firms [1] - Brian Gilmartin has a background as a fixed-income/credit analyst and has experience working with various firms before establishing his own [1] Professional Background - Brian Gilmartin holds a BSBA in Finance from Xavier University and an MBA in Finance from Loyola University, with the CFA designation awarded in 1994 [1] - He has contributed to financial publications such as TheStreet.com, WallStreet AllStars, and Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in major outlets like the Wall Street Journal [1]

Core Insights - Netflix Inc is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings, with Wall Street expecting an EPS of $4.19 and revenues of $10.11 billion, indicating significant market anticipation [1] - The stock has shown a remarkable increase of 79.33% over the past year and 33.04% over the last six months, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - NFLX stock is currently facing strong bearish momentum, trading below its five-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure [2] - The short-term trend remains weak, with the 20-day simple moving average at $881.48 and the 50-day SMA at $875.87 suggesting a bearish outlook [2] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is at a negative 10.67, signaling continued weakness, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.94 indicates potential for further declines [3] Long-term Support and Potential Trends - Despite current weakness, the eight-day SMA at $851.55 is just below the current price, and the 200-day SMA at $715.29 remains well below the share price of $861.20, indicating long-term bullish support [4] - Investors should monitor for potential stabilization around current levels or a deeper pullback, as a sustained break below key technical support levels could lead to an extended bearish trend [4] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - The consensus analyst rating for Netflix stock is currently a Buy, with a price target of $870.13 [5] - Recent ratings from Loop Capital, Seaport Global, and Rosenblatt suggest a downside of 0.72%, with an average price target of $853.33 [5] - At the time of publication, Netflix stock was trading at $860.25 [5]

Core Insights - Netflix is expected to report its fourth-quarter results, with analysts generally optimistic about the company's performance, as indicated by a majority of "buy" ratings from brokers [1][5] - The consensus price target for Netflix shares is approximately $905, suggesting a potential upside of about 7% from the recent stock price [1] - Analysts anticipate a 15% year-over-year revenue growth for Netflix, projecting revenues of $10.13 billion and earnings of $1.84 billion, or $4.23 per share [4] Analyst Ratings - Among the 19 brokers covering Netflix, 14 have issued "buy" or equivalent ratings, while only four have "hold" ratings and one has a "sell" rating [1] - Wedbush Securities has set a target price of $950, citing Netflix's strong position in the streaming market and the success of its ad-supported subscription tier [2] - JPMorgan has adjusted its price target to $1,000, highlighting the potential for subscriber growth and high-margin revenue from the ad-supported tier and password-sharing crackdown [3] Financial Projections - The expected revenue growth of 15% year-over-year is significant, with earnings projected to rise from $937.8 million, or $2.11 per share, to $1.84 billion, or $4.23 per share [4] - The stock has shown strong performance, increasing approximately 70% over the past 12 months, closing just above $842 recently [4]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is expected to gain a significant number of subscribers in Q4, driven by sports content, but may face challenges in retaining these subscribers post-holiday season [1][4]. Subscriber Growth - Analyst Barton Crockett predicts that Netflix's subscriber growth will exceed estimates, with viewership for top 10 titles increasing by 25% year-over-year in Q4 [4]. - The platform's expansion into sports is anticipated to contribute positively to subscriber numbers, particularly around the Christmas Day NFL games [2][3]. Financial Performance - Netflix is projected to outperform revenue estimates for Q4, with advertising revenues from two NFL games potentially exceeding $120 million [3]. - The company has successfully sold out its advertising slots for these NFL games, indicating strong demand [3]. Future Outlook - Despite positive indicators for Q4, there is caution regarding Q1 guidance, as Netflix will lose the NFL advertising boost and may see subscriber churn from those who joined for specific events [4]. - The analyst emphasizes the importance of demonstrating a return on investment for sports rights during the upcoming earnings call [5]. Stock Performance - Netflix's stock has seen a 0.4% increase, currently trading at $852.16, with a notable 77% rise over the past year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Netflix Inc. is set to announce its fourth-quarter earnings on January 21, aiming to replicate its previous post-earnings success from October [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Historically, Netflix stock has shown mixed post-earnings reactions, with four out of eight sessions finishing higher in the past two years [2] - After the October earnings report, Netflix stock surged by 11.1%, and options traders are currently pricing in a 9.4% potential move for the stock, which is higher than the average 8.6% post-earnings swing over the last eight reports [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Shares of Netflix are currently up 1% to $856.50, boosted by an upgrade to "buy" from Seaport Research Partners, with price-target increases from BMO and Oppenheimer to $1,000 and $1,040, respectively [3] - Despite a 25% gain over the past three months and reaching an all-time high of $941.75 on December 11, Netflix stock is down 3.8% year-to-date [3] - An outstanding earnings report could influence analysts, as 17 out of 41 brokerages currently maintain a "hold" or worse rating on Netflix [4] Group 3: Options Market Sentiment - Options traders are showing a preference for puts ahead of the earnings announcement, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.02, indicating unusually high demand for puts [5] - This put/call ratio ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range, suggesting that traders may need to adjust their positions if there is a post-earnings upward movement [5]