JUST IN: Jack Dorsey & Square tease launching an in app map showing where you can spend #Bitcoin at local merchants 🙌Adoption is accelerating 🚀 https://t.co/mmXFSMHGvQ ...

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a weaker close due to concerns over stretched tech valuations, policy paralysis, and deteriorating consumer sentiment, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.6% [1] - After a year of AI-related optimism, markets are showing signs of valuation fatigue, with analysts noting a fading enthusiasm for AI monetization and corporate cost-savings [2] - The VIX climbed to a two-week high, reflecting increased hedging demand, despite 83% of S&P 500 companies beating Q3 earnings estimates, the highest since 2021 [3] Policy and Macro Backdrop - The longest U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, leaving the Federal Reserve and markets without crucial employment figures, leading to uncertainty ahead of the December FOMC meeting [4] - Consumer sentiment has collapsed to 50.3, the weakest since mid-2022, as households express growing pessimism about job security and inflation [5] Sector and Flow Dynamics Analysis - Institutional investors are rotating into defensive sectors such as utilities, staples, and healthcare, while high-beta tech names and consumer cyclicals are experiencing net outflows [6] - Airline stocks like AAL, DAL, and UAL fell sharply due to a directive to reduce flights amid air-traffic controller shortages, highlighting the shutdown's impact [6] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's stock fell despite shareholder approval of Elon Musk's pay package, indicating valuation pressures even among established companies [7] - Block's stock plunged 14% after missing profit expectations, suggesting that fintech growth companies are also facing valuation compression [7] Forward View - Upcoming $125 billion Treasury supply will test market risk appetite as yields remain near recent lows, with potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs possibly affecting Treasury issuance schedules [8] - Until the government reopens, risk-taking is likely to remain constrained, with macro funds preserving cash and favoring quality and duration in their portfolios [8]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital has lowered the target price for Block from $97 to $90 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] Summary by Category Company Analysis - The adjustment in target price reflects a reassessment of Block's market position and future growth potential [1] Market Implications - Maintaining the "Outperform" rating suggests that RBC Capital still sees potential for Block to perform better than the market average despite the price reduction [1]

Welcome back. Two fintech companies moving in opposite directions on this Friday. Mackenzie Sagalos has more on block and a firm.We talked to Max earlier this morning about GMV. >> Yeah, that was a a real bright spot for them. But a tale of two fintexs after the bell.A firm soaring, block sinking, and that disconnect was not about the consumer, but about who's proving they can scale profitably. A firm posted a blowout quarter that delivered exactly that even after losing the Walmart deal to CLA. transaction ...

Core Insights - The performance of two fintech companies, Affirm and Block, diverged significantly, with Affirm showing strong growth while Block faced ongoing challenges [2][5]. Affirm - Affirm reported a remarkable quarter with a 42% surge in transaction volume and earnings per share (EPS) more than doubling street estimates, despite losing the Walmart deal [2]. - The Affirm card, aimed at capturing point-of-sale payments, saw its volume more than double year-over-year, indicating strong consumer adoption [3]. Block - Block, led by Jack Dorsey, experienced its fourth consecutive double miss on both revenue and earnings, marking a troubling trend with six straight revenue misses [3][4]. - Although payment volume increased, profits did not keep pace, leading to concerns about persistent margin issues, attributed to elevated processing costs [4]. - Cash App showed strong performance with a 134% increase in borrowing, but this was already anticipated by the market, putting pressure on Block to provide positive guidance at the upcoming investor day [5]. Market Reaction - Block's stock has declined nearly 27% this year, reflecting investor concerns and the need for clearer positive signals from the company [6].

Core Insights - The article revisits Block, Inc. (formerly known as Square) and reflects on its performance in relation to Bitcoin, suggesting that Bitcoin may not provide the expected benefits for the company this time around [1]. Company Overview - Block, Inc. continues to operate under the Square brand, maintaining its identity despite the ticker change [1]. Analyst Perspective - The author emphasizes a macro strategy approach, focusing on long-term signals rather than short-term noise, indicating a strategic investment philosophy [1].

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets faced a broad retreat on November 7, 2025, primarily due to a sell-off in technology stocks, driven by concerns over inflated valuations in the AI sector and a prolonged government shutdown [1][10] - All three major indexes are on track for their steepest weekly losses in months, with the Nasdaq Composite poised for its worst weekly performance since March [1][2] Major Index Performance - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) declined approximately 1.5% to 2% in afternoon trading, following a 1.9% drop on Thursday [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) fell between 0.9% and 1.2% by mid-afternoon, after a 1.1% decline on Thursday [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down around 0.5% to 0.8% in afternoon trading, closing 0.8% lower on Thursday [2] Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged by 8.3%, reaching its highest level in over two weeks, indicating increased investor nervousness [3] - The current market unease is exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown, which has led to a "data blackout" affecting crucial economic releases [6] Sector Performance - There is a notable rotation out of high-growth technology stocks, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) slipping 2% and 2.3% respectively [4] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) advanced by 1%, indicating a defensive shift in investor portfolios towards traditional and value-oriented sectors [5] Corporate Developments - Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 3.3% to 4% despite shareholder approval of CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation package [13] - Chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) faced significant pressure, with declines of 3.8% and 4.6% respectively, reflecting caution regarding high valuations in AI-related stocks [13] - Payments company Block (SQ) slumped 9.8% to 10.5% after disappointing third-quarter earnings [13] - Conversely, Peloton (PTON) and Expedia Group (EXPE) saw significant gains of 3.4% to 6.1% and 16.6% to 17.3% respectively, following better-than-expected earnings [13]

Core Insights - Block (XYZ) reported Q3 2025 adjusted earnings of 54 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents, but showing a slight increase from 53 cents in the prior-year quarter [1][10] - Net revenues for the quarter were $6.11 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $6.34 billion, yet representing a 2.3% year-over-year increase [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Transaction-based revenues, accounting for 30.6% of net revenues, reached $1.87 billion, up 9.4% year over year, with Square contributing $1.82 billion (up 10.7%) and Cash App contributing $56.1 million (down 19.8%) [3] - Subscription and services-based revenues made up 36.1% of net revenues, totaling $2.2 billion, reflecting a 22.6% year-over-year growth [3] - Hardware revenues increased significantly by 90.5% year over year to $70.2 million, representing 1.1% of net revenues [3] Gross Payment Volume (GPV) and Profitability - Bitcoin revenues, which constituted 32.2% of net revenues, declined by 19% year over year to $1.97 billion [4] - Total GPV was $69.28 billion, marking a 10.9% year-over-year increase, with Square's GPV at $67.15 billion (up 12.2%) and Cash App's GPV at $2.13 billion (down 18.6%) [4] - Gross profit for the quarter grew 18.3% year over year to $2.66 billion, with Square generating $1.02 billion (up 9.2%) and Cash App generating $1.62 billion (up 24.3%) [6] Operating Performance - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $832.7 million, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year increase [7] - Operating expenses rose by 16.9% year over year to $2.25 billion [7] - Adjusted operating income was $480.2 million, up 8.3% year over year, with an adjusted operating margin of 18%, expanding 200 basis points year over year [8] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of September 30, 2025, Block had $10.5 billion in liquidity, including $9.7 billion in cash and securities, and $775 million available in a credit facility [11] - Long-term debt increased to $5.71 billion from $3.54 billion as of June 30, 2025 [11] - In Q3 2025, Block repurchased 5.3 million shares of its Class A common stock for $403 million, with $1.1 billion remaining under the current authorization [11] Guidance - For Q4 2025, Block expects gross profit of $2.755 billion, indicating a 19% year-over-year growth, and an adjusted operating income of $560 million with a 20% operating margin [12] - For the full year 2025, the company anticipates a gross profit of $10.243 billion (15% growth) and adjusted operating income of $2.056 billion [13]

Core Insights - Block Inc. shares experienced a significant decline following the release of third-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street expectations, indicating a slowdown in profit growth within its primary Square business [1] Financial Performance - The third-quarter results revealed that Block Inc. did not meet analysts' forecasts, which has raised concerns about the company's financial trajectory [1] - The core Square business is showing signs of slowing profit growth, which is critical for the company's overall performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Block shares experienced a 10% decline following disappointing third-quarter earnings that did not meet Wall Street expectations, indicating a slowdown in profit growth for the Square service [1] Financial Performance - Earnings per share were reported at 54 cents adjusted, compared to the expected 67 cents [4] - Revenue for the quarter was $6.11 billion, falling short of the anticipated $6.31 billion [4] - Year-to-date, Block shares have decreased by 24% [1] Segment Performance - Square's gross payment volume increased by 12% year-over-year, but gross profit growth for the point-of-sale service was only 9%, a decline from the previous quarter's 11% growth [1] - Cash App's gross profit growth was significantly stronger at $1.62 billion, reflecting a 24% increase year-over-year, supported by 58 million monthly transacting active users [3] - The growth in Cash App was driven by services such as Cash App Borrow, Cash App Card, and Buy Now Pay Later [3] Strategic Insights - The company attributed the slower growth in Square to a change in processing partners and lower-margin hardware sales [2] - The Chief Financial Officer noted that the company's product and go-to-market strategies are effectively gaining profitable market share in targeted verticals like food and beverage, particularly with larger sellers and outside the U.S. [2]