StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.The upward trend in estimate revisions for this company reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in ...

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of earnings estimate revisions, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for StoneCo suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to increased stock prices [5][10]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [9][10]. Recent Earnings Estimate Revisions for StoneCo - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, StoneCo is expected to earn $1.26 per share, reflecting a -6.7% change from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for StoneCo has increased by 5.3%, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment positions and recommendations of The Motley Fool, particularly focusing on StoneCo, highlighting its potential as an investment opportunity [1] Company Analysis - The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends StoneCo, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [1] - Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, is affiliated with The Motley Fool, suggesting that his insights may align with the company's investment strategies [1] Disclosure and Compensation - The article mentions that Parkev Tatevosian may be compensated for promoting The Motley Fool's services, which could influence his opinions [1] - The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy, ensuring transparency regarding its investment positions and recommendations [1]

Group 1: Stock Performance and Price Targets - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) closed at $10.62, with a 14.7% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $13.41 indicating a 26.3% upside potential [1] - The average of 10 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $6 to a high of $22, with a standard deviation of $5.05, suggesting variability in analyst estimates [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a potential decline of 43.5%, while the most optimistic estimate suggests a 107.2% upside [2] Group 2: Analyst Consensus and Earnings Estimates - Analysts show strong agreement on the company's ability to report better earnings than previously predicted, which supports the view of potential upside [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 3.2% due to one estimate moving higher over the last 30 days without any negative revisions [11] - STNE holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [12] Group 3: Price Target Reliability and Analyst Behavior - Price targets set by analysts are often questioned for their reliability, as empirical research indicates they rarely predict actual stock price movements [6][9] - Analysts may set overly optimistic price targets due to business incentives related to their firms' interests in the companies they cover [7] - A low standard deviation in price targets indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, serving as a starting point for further research [8]

Group 1 - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) has reached an important support level and surpassed resistance at the 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term bullish trend [1][2] - STNE has moved 19.8% higher over the last four weeks, suggesting potential for further gains [2] - The company is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), reflecting positive market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Earnings estimate revisions for STNE show one upward revision and no downward revisions for the current fiscal year, indicating a positive outlook [3] - The consensus earnings estimate for STNE has also increased, further supporting the bullish sentiment [3] - Investors are encouraged to monitor STNE for potential gains due to its key technical levels and favorable earnings revisions [3]

Core Insights - StoneCo's stock rose 14.2% this week due to better-than-expected quarterly results [1] - The company reported fourth-quarter sales of 3.61 billion Brazilian real (approximately $636 million), surpassing analyst expectations [2] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.40, exceeding the average analyst target by $0.06 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue increased approximately 11% year-over-year in Q4, while adjusted earnings per share rose about 47% [3] - Total payment volumes for small and medium-sized business customers grew by 22% compared to the prior year [3] - The company is rapidly scaling its credit business, contributing to sales growth [3] Market Outlook - Despite the recent stock rally, StoneCo's stock is down roughly 34% over the past year due to macroeconomic pressures in Brazil [4] - Inflation in Brazil is beginning to cool, which may lead to improved business results and stock performance for StoneCo [5] - The stock is currently trading at approximately 8 times this year's expected earnings, indicating it may be undervalued [5]

Group 1 - The article recommends buying StoneCo (NASDAQ: STNE) shares following the release of its Q4 results, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1] - The recommendation is a continuation of previous coverage published on June 17, 2024, suggesting ongoing confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past quarters, reinforcing its investment potential [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, adjusted net income reached BRL2.2 billion, exceeding guidance of BRL1.9 billion, despite macroeconomic headwinds and over BRL100 million in negative impacts from accounting changes [15][18] - Adjusted net margin was 18.4% in Q4 2024, up 1 percentage point year-over-year [18] - Total revenues for Q4 2024 increased by 11% year-over-year, driven by active client base growth and higher monetization [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MSMB card TPV reached BRL403 billion in 2024, a 15% year-over-year growth, while total MSMB TPV reached BRL454 billion, a 22% increase [10] - The MSMB take rate was 2.55% in 2024, exceeding guidance of 2.49% [13] - The credit portfolio grew to BRL1.2 billion, significantly above the BRL800 million target, with non-performing loans over 90 days at a controlled 3.61% [13][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail deposits closed 2024 at BRL8.7 billion, surpassing guidance of BRL7 billion, reflecting strong performance in bundled payments and banking offerings [11] - The banking active client base increased by 46% year-over-year to 3.1 million clients [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to establish Stone accounts as the primary financial hub for clients, focusing on enhancing the value proposition with a comprehensive product ecosystem [11][12] - The strategy includes a shift towards using deposits to fund operations, which is expected to reduce funding costs and improve capital structure [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continuing to outpace market growth and expanding share in the MSMB payments market [10] - The company remains focused on delivering sustainable long-term value creation despite potential macroeconomic challenges [65] Other Important Information - The company introduced gross profit as a key performance measure, which reached BRL1.7 billion in Q4 2024, growing 13% year-over-year [21] - A goodwill impairment charge of BRL3.6 billion was recognized for the software cash-generating units, which is a non-cash accounting adjustment [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance of banking solutions and room for improvement - Management highlighted that deposit growth is outpacing TPV due to successful bundling of payments and banking solutions, with ongoing development of new products [68][70] Question: View on dividends given excess capital - Management indicated that while they have returned over BRL2 billion in share buybacks, they are not committing to specific targets for capital allocation at this time [76][78] Question: Details on price increases and guidance on EPS - Management confirmed that a substantial repricing initiative was executed at the beginning of Q1 2025, with adjustments based on yield curve projections [89][92] - The decision to guide basic EPS instead of diluted EPS was made to avoid volatility and complexity in calculations [94][96] Question: Potential sale of the Software business - Management stated that no offers met their intrinsic value for the software assets, and they will focus on maximizing value through cross-selling financial services [112][114]

Earnings Presentation Risks that contribute to the uncertain nature of the forward-looking statements include, among others, risks associated with the Company's ability to anticipate market needs and develop and deliver new and enhanced products and services functionalities to address the rapidly evolving market for payments and point-of-sale, financial technology, and marketing services; the Company's ability to differentiate itself from its competition by delivering a superior customer experience and thro ...

Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. reported quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.32 per share, and showing an increase from $0.36 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 21.88% [1] - The company generated revenues of $617.63 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.24%, although this represents a decline from year-ago revenues of $655.87 million [2] - StoneCo shares have increased approximately 27.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a decline of -3.5% in the S&P 500 [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.26 on revenues of $572.46 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.15 on revenues of $2.48 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for StoneCo is mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which StoneCo belongs, is currently ranked in the top 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]