Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, generating a record $10.8 billion in home sales revenue, with an adjusted gross margin of 27.3% and earnings of $13.49 per diluted share [4][5][18] - For the fourth quarter, the company generated $3.4 billion in home sales revenue with an adjusted gross margin of 27.1% and earnings of $4.58 per diluted share, slightly below guidance due to a delayed sale [5][19] - The company reported a net income of $1.35 billion for the full year, down from $1.57 billion the previous year, primarily due to a one-time gain in the prior year [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew its community count by 9% and maintained strong operating cash flows of $1.1 billion, returning approximately $750 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends [5][21] - Spec homes accounted for approximately 54% of deliveries in fiscal 2025, allowing the company to appeal to buyers looking for quicker move-ins [7][8] - The average spend on design studio selections and upgrades was approximately $206,000 per home, benefiting margins [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted relative strength in the East and coastal California markets, with little meaningful variation in demand among buyer segments [11] - The average sales price in the quarter was approximately $972,000, down from $1 million in the same quarter last year due to a mix of sales [10][19] - The company observed a structural undersupply of homes in the U.S., with favorable demographics supporting long-term housing demand [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to exit the multifamily business, expecting to complete the sale of its apartment living assets and use the proceeds to grow its core home building business and return capital to stockholders [6][16][50] - The company aims to grow community count by 8%-10% in fiscal 2026, targeting 480-490 communities [24] - The strategy includes a balanced portfolio of build-to-order and spec homes to improve efficiencies and reduce construction cycle times [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the housing market, noting that mortgage rates have stabilized and demographic trends remain favorable [9][10] - The company is not assuming any market improvement in its guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting first-quarter deliveries of 1,800-1,900 homes [21][22] - Management highlighted the importance of consumer confidence and affordability pressures as key factors influencing the housing market [87] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with over $3.5 billion in liquidity and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 15.3% [21] - The company repurchased $652 million of its common stock during fiscal 2025, representing 5% of outstanding shares [15][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the active adult buyer segment and trends affecting land purchasing decisions? - Management noted that the active adult segment is performing well, representing about 17% of revenue, and emphasized a disciplined approach to land purchasing amid changing trends [31][32][34] Question: What factors are influencing the guidance for closings in 2026? - Management indicated that the lower backlog at the beginning of 2026 is the primary driver for the guidance, with no assumptions of improved sales pace [72][74] Question: What is driving the sequential decline in gross margins into the first quarter and the full year? - The increase in incentives per house from $68,000 to $80,000 is a significant factor affecting gross margins [81] Question: How does the company view consumer confidence and the desire to sell homes? - Management expressed that consumer confidence remains a critical driver, with some headwinds due to affordability and mortgage rates, but noted potential long-term tailwinds as the market stabilizes [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, generating a record $10.8 billion in home sales revenues, with an adjusted gross margin of 27.3% and earnings of $13.49 per diluted share [4][5] - In the fourth quarter, the company generated $3.4 billion in home sales revenue with an adjusted gross margin of 27.1% and earnings of $4.58 per diluted share, which was slightly below guidance due to a delayed sale [5][19] - The company reported a net income of $1.35 billion for the full year, down from $1.57 billion the previous year, primarily due to a one-time gain in the prior year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew its community count by 9% and maintained strong operating cash flows of $1.1 billion, returning approximately $750 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends [5][21] - Spec homes accounted for approximately 54% of deliveries in fiscal 2025, allowing the company to appeal to buyers looking for quicker move-in options [8] - The average spend on design studio selections and upgrades was approximately $206,000 per home, benefiting margins [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted relative strength in the East and coastal California markets, with little meaningful variation in demand among buyer segments [11] - The average age of first-time home buyers is now 40 years, with the majority of sales in the market going to move-up or move-down buyers [12] - The company is experiencing a structural undersupply of homes in the U.S., which supports demand for new homes [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to exit the multifamily business over the next few years, using cash proceeds to grow its core home building business and return capital to stockholders [16][51] - The company is focusing on a balanced portfolio of build-to-order and spec homes to improve efficiencies and reduce construction cycle times [7] - The company aims to grow community count by 8%-10% in fiscal 2026, targeting 480-490 communities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the housing market, noting that mortgage rates have stabilized and demographic trends remain favorable [9][10] - The company is not assuming any market improvement in its guidance for fiscal 2026, reflecting a conservative approach [40] - Management highlighted the importance of consumer confidence and affordability pressures as key factors influencing the housing market [87] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with over $3.5 billion in liquidity, including $1.3 billion in cash [21] - The company plans to repurchase $650 million of shares in fiscal 2026, with most occurring later in the year [24][89] - The company is experiencing a cancellation rate of 4.3% of beginning backlog, consistent with previous quarters [19] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the assumptions for the active adult buyer? - Management noted that the active adult segment is performing well, representing about 17% of revenue, and expects this group to continue to outperform in softer market conditions [32] Question: Could the number of owned lots stay flat or decline next year? - Management indicated that owned lots may continue to decrease slightly as the company focuses on land banking and joint ventures [36] Question: What is driving the implied moderation in gross margin through the year? - Management explained that the moderation is due to a higher incentive on spec homes, which are expected to increase in the latter part of the year [44] Question: How does the company view consumer confidence and the desire to sell homes? - Management expressed that while consumer confidence is a concern, there are long-term tailwinds that could improve the market as time progresses [87]

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call December 09, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0Good morning and welcome to the Toll Brothers Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, pl ...

Earnings Reports - Toll Brothers reported Q4 earnings of $4.58 per share, missing Wall Street expectations by $0.30, which anticipated $4.88 per share. However, sales were above forecasts at $3.4 billion [5] - Toll Brothers' backlog at the end of Q4 was $5.5 billion, down 15% year-over-year, indicating weakening demand for new homes. The company has 4,647 homes awaiting construction, a decrease from 5,996 homes a year ago, reflecting a 22.5% decline in unit backlog [6] - AutoZone reported Q1 profit of $31.04, missing expectations by $1.83, while revenue was $4.6 billion, slightly below analysts' forecasts [7]

Group 1: Earnings Season Overview - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid results, with 99% of S&P 500 companies reporting a 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][3] - Analysts had initially expected a lower earnings growth of 7.9% for Q3, indicating a significant positive surprise in actual results [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Earnings Reports - AutoZone (AZO) reported earnings of $31.04 per share on revenue of $4.62 billion, missing estimates of $32.40 and $4.64 billion respectively, with gross profit decreasing due to inventory charges [6][7] - Campbell's Company (CPB) saw a 3% decline in net sales to $2.67 billion and earnings per share of $0.65, below the expected $0.71 [8][9] - Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings per share of $4.58, missing estimates of $4.89, while revenue was $3.41 billion, exceeding estimates of $3.31 billion [11][12] - Victoria's Secret (VSCO) stock rose over 13% after raising its 2025 guidance for net sales and earnings, forecasting net sales between $6.45 billion and $6.48 billion [18][19] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares fell 4% after forecasting Q1 revenue below estimates, expecting $9 billion to $9.4 billion compared to the $9.9 billion expected [22] - CrowdStrike (CRWD) reported a 22% revenue increase to $1.23 billion, raising its full-year guidance to $4.79 billion to $4.80 billion [55][56] Group 3: AI Mentions and Market Sentiment - Mentions of "AI" on earnings calls reached a record high, with 306 S&P 500 companies citing the term, reflecting the growing importance of AI in corporate strategies [14][15] - Companies mentioning AI have experienced higher average stock price increases compared to those that did not, indicating a market trend favoring AI-related narratives [15][16] - Oracle (ORCL) is expected to report earnings soon, which may influence sentiment around AI and its cloud business backlog [17]

Core Insights - U.S. stock futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures up approximately 0.1% [1] - Toll Brothers Inc reported mixed financial results for Q4 fiscal 2025, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price [1] Toll Brothers Inc - The company reported Q4 revenue of $3.42 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.30 billion [2] - Q4 earnings were $4.58 per share, which fell short of analyst expectations of $4.89 per share [2] - Following the earnings report, Toll Brothers shares decreased by 3.5% to $131.45 in pre-market trading [2] Other Stocks - Almonty Industries Inc saw a significant drop of 14.2% to $6.78 after announcing a $112.5 million underwritten offering [3] - Cemtrex Inc's shares fell 11.4% to $6.25 after a previous surge of 130% [3] - Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. declined by 4.9% to $12.35 following a proposed $150 million public offering [3] - Graphic Packaging Holding Company experienced a 4.2% drop to $14.93, with a new CEO appointed and cost optimization initiatives announced [3] - Baidu, Inc. shares decreased by 3.8% to $125.05 after a prior gain [3] - SLM Corporation fell 3.5% to $29.77, while MINISO Group Holding Limited dropped 2.3% to $19.46 after recent gains [3]

Core Insights - U.S. stock futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures up approximately 0.1% [1] - Toll Brothers Inc reported mixed financial results for Q4 fiscal 2025, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price [1] Toll Brothers Inc - The company reported Q4 revenue of $3.42 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.30 billion [2] - Q4 earnings were $4.58 per share, which fell short of analyst expectations of $4.89 per share [2] - Following the earnings report, Toll Brothers shares decreased by 3.5% to $131.45 in pre-market trading [2] Other Stocks - Almonty Industries Inc saw a 14.2% drop to $6.78 after announcing a $112.5 million underwritten offering [3] - Cemtrex Inc's shares fell 11.4% to $6.25 after a significant surge of 130% on the previous day [3] - Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. experienced a 4.9% decline to $12.35 following a proposed $150 million public offering [3] - Graphic Packaging Holding Company shares decreased by 4.2% to $14.93 after appointing a new CEO and announcing optimization initiatives [3] - Baidu, Inc. shares fell 3.8% to $125.05 after a prior gain of over 3% [3] - SLM Corporation's stock dropped 3.5% to $29.77 in pre-market trading [3] - MINISO Group Holding Limited shares decreased by 2.3% to $19.46 after a previous increase of over 3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat but faced investor disappointment due to modest revenue growth and market expectations [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - The company posted EPS of $4.63, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.38 by $0.25, representing a 5.8% surprise and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of exceeding analyst expectations [2][5]. - Revenue for the quarter was $3.26 billion, slightly above the estimate of $3.20 billion by 1.8%, but this figure declined 2.2% year over year from $3.33 billion in the previous fourth quarter [2][6]. Market Reaction - Despite the earnings beat, shares opened down approximately 4.3% to $130.38, indicating investor disappointment [1][5]. - The stock broke below its 50-day moving average of $135.01 but remained above the 200-day moving average of $120.27, showing volatility in after-hours trading [8]. Analyst Sentiment - Analyst sentiment remains moderately bullish, with ten analysts maintaining Buy or Strong Buy ratings compared to six Hold or Sell ratings, and an average price target of $152.40, suggesting a potential upside of 16.9% from current levels [9]. Future Outlook - The focus now shifts to forward guidance and order trends, which were not included in the preliminary data. The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.08, indicating a reasonable valuation for a profitable homebuilder [10]. - Investors are looking for evidence of revenue growth reacceleration to justify the current valuation [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Toll Brothers (TOL) have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately 13% of their value [1] Company Performance - The hopes for a rebound in the housing market have diminished at the start of 2025 [1] Investment Strategy - The article discusses a strategy of making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories to achieve outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1]

Group 1 - Shares of Toll Brothers (TOL) have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately 13% of their value [1] - Expectations for a recovery in the housing market diminished at the beginning of 2025 [1] - The analysis is based on over fifteen years of experience in making contrarian bets and identifying stock-specific turnaround stories [1]