Valuation and Market Position - United Parcel Service (UPS) is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.97X, which is below the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry and the S&P 500, indicating an attractive valuation [1][10] - UPS has a Value Score of B, while its competitor FedEx has a Value Score of A, suggesting that UPS is undervalued compared to its peers [1] Acquisition and Growth Potential - UPS finalized its acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion), enhancing its capabilities in the healthcare logistics sector [4][5] - The acquisition is expected to improve UPS Healthcare's service offerings, including reduced transit times and better visibility, which could attract more customers [5] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - UPS has a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a current dividend yield of 6.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.4% [6][10] - The company has increased its dividend five times over the past five years, indicating a solid history of dividend growth and confidence in cash flow generation [7] - UPS plans to distribute $5.5 billion in dividends in the current year, reflecting its robust financial health [7] Share Buyback Program - UPS has approved a share repurchase authorization of $5 billion for 2023, with $1 billion already completed, demonstrating its commitment to enhancing shareholder value [8][10] - The company reported $6.3 billion in free cash flow for 2024, supporting its buyback and dividend initiatives [8] Earnings Performance - UPS has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the past four quarters, with an average earnings beat of 11.2% [11] Challenges and Market Conditions - UPS is facing challenges from weak shipment volumes, particularly due to a planned reduction in Amazon shipments and a pullback from lower-margin e-commerce traffic [12][13] - The company's international segment reported a 12.8% decline in operating profit, with margins narrowing due to global trade pressures, particularly in Asia [14][15] - The expiration of the De Minimis exemption is expected to negatively impact international markets, further straining UPS's performance [16] Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined over 21% in the past year, underperforming its industry, which saw a 12.5% decline [10][17]

Incident Overview - A UPS cargo plane crashed in Kentucky after takeoff [1] - The crash involved an MD11 aircraft whose left engine and pylon detached, leading to an explosion [2] - The crash resulted in fatalities, including three crew members and 11 people on the ground [2] - Approximately 38,000 gallons of jet fuel ignited across a debris field half a mile long [1] Investigation and Recovery - The NTSB is conducting a final determination on the cause of the crash [3] - The community has made significant progress in restoration efforts in just over a month [3] Operational Impact - UPS has grounded its fleet of MD11s following the crash [4] - Contingency plans are in place to maintain reliable service [4] Legal and Public Relations - Lawsuits are accumulating in response to the incident [4]

Core Viewpoint - Leverage Shares by Themes has launched six new single stock leveraged ETFs, aimed at providing investors with 200% daily exposure to the performance of specific companies, enhancing investment opportunities in high-growth sectors [1][2]. Group 1: New ETFs Overview - The newly launched ETFs include: - OPEG – Leverage Shares 2X Long OPEN Daily ETF [Opendoor Technologies] - CIFG – Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF [Cipher Mining Inc.] - GRAG – Leverage Shares 2X Long GRAB Daily ETF [Grab Holdings] - DUOL – Leverage Shares 2X Long DUOL Daily ETF [Duolingo Inc.] - LACG – Leverage Shares 2X Long LAC Daily ETF [Lithium Americas Corp] - UPSG – Leverage Shares 2X Long UPS Daily ETF [United Parcel Service, Inc.] [2][3] - These products are available for trading starting December 11, 2025, and bring the total count of Leveraged Single Stock Daily ETFs at Leverage Shares by Themes to 49 [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Fees - The ETFs are designed to target a 200% exposure to the daily performance of their underlying stocks, catering to both sophisticated traders and retail investors [2]. - The management fee for these single stock leveraged ETFs is set at an industry-low rate of 0.75% [2]. Group 3: Company Background - Themes ETFs was established in 2023 by the Co-Founders of Leverage Shares to offer thematic and sector-based products in the US [4]. - Leverage Shares is recognized as the pioneer and largest issuer of single stock ETPs in Europe, with over 160 ETPs providing leveraged and unleveraged exposure across various exchanges [5].

Group 1: United Parcel Service (UPS) - UPS is experiencing a 24% decline in stock price this year, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of less than 15, significantly below the S&P 500 average of 25 [4][5] - The company has maintained a consistent revenue of around $21 billion in the last three quarters, but is focusing on improving profitability by reducing package volume for Amazon [4][5] - Despite current challenges from tariffs and a slowdown in global trade, the low valuation and nearly 7% dividend yield present an attractive investment opportunity [5] Group 2: Novo Nordisk - Novo Nordisk's stock has plummeted by 45% this year due to the resignation of its former CEO and a reduction in sales guidance, leading investors to favor rival Eli Lilly [6] - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of just 13, which is considered low given the company's strong growth potential, with a 15% sales increase in the first nine months of the year when excluding currency impacts [6] - The company faces competition from compounding pharmacies selling copies of its drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, which complicates its market position [8] Group 3: General Market Observations - UPS, Novo Nordisk, and Adobe are all trading below the S&P 500's average P/E ratio, indicating potential undervaluation despite their solid and profitable underlying businesses [7] - These companies possess promising long-term growth prospects that the market may not fully recognize [7]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is experiencing revenue weakness primarily due to subdued demand influenced by tariff-related uncertainty, elevated inflation, and broader geopolitical challenges, with a 3.7% revenue decline in the September quarter compared to the previous year [1]. Revenue and Margin Performance - Despite the revenue decline, UPS has seen an increase in its adjusted operating margin, which reached 10% in Q3 2025, up from 8.9% a year ago and 8.8% in Q2 2025, driven by effective cost management and a 9.8% increase in revenue per piece [2][10]. - UPS anticipates further improvement in the adjusted operating margin, projecting it to be in the range of 11-11.5% for Q4 2025, with an estimated revenue of $16.2 billion in the U.S. Domestic segment and an adjusted operating margin of around 10% [4]. Customer Relationship and Cost Management - Earlier in the year, UPS decided to reduce its business with Amazon, its largest customer, aiming to lower Amazon's volume by over 50% by June 2026. This decision is expected to result in a $2.2 billion reduction in expenses related to Amazon by the end of Q3 2025, with a target of $3.5 billion by year-end [3][10]. Competitive Landscape - FedEx, a competitor of UPS, is also facing weak demand and is implementing cost-cutting measures. In Q1 of fiscal 2026, FedEx achieved $200 million in transformation-related savings and reported a 7% increase in adjusted operating income [5]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, UPS shares have declined by more than 6%, underperforming its industry [6]. - From a valuation perspective, UPS trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.16X, which is nearly in line with industry levels [11].

Core Viewpoint - UPS is facing challenges but is committed to maintaining its dividend, which currently yields 6.9%, as it works on improving operational efficiency and profitability [5][14]. Financial Performance - UPS has seen a decline of approximately 25% year-to-date and is only up 15% from its 12-year low, with revenue and margins decreasing over the past three years [4]. - Despite the stock's poor performance, UPS has increased its dividend significantly in recent years, although its earnings and free cash flow (FCF) have been declining [6][8]. - The current dividend is slightly larger than UPS's earnings and FCF, raising concerns about sustainability, yet management believes it can support and potentially increase the dividend [8][14]. Market Position and Strategy - UPS is adjusting its operations after overexpanding during the pandemic, focusing on more profitable delivery segments while reducing low-margin, high-volume deliveries [9][11]. - The company plans to cut delivery volumes for Amazon by 50% by June 2026, which may lead to a revenue decrease but is seen as a strategic move to enhance margins [11]. Valuation and Future Outlook - Analysts project UPS to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of $6.87 in 2025 and $7.16 in 2026, suggesting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 based on current stock prices [12]. - UPS's 10-year median P/E is 19.7, indicating that the stock is currently undervalued [13]. - The company’s management is optimistic about improving FCF, which could justify future dividend increases, making it an attractive option for income investors [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - As the holiday season approaches, investors are advised to review their portfolios and consider dropping underperforming stocks before the end of the year [1] Group 1: Target Inc. - Target has struggled in 2025, consistently missing expectations despite resilient consumer spending [2] - The company reported a 2.7% decline in comparable sales for fiscal Q3 2026 and lowered its full-year EPS guidance to $7 to $8 per share [2] - Analysts have issued 11 price reductions for Target's stock following its recent conference call, indicating a lack of confidence in its recovery [2][4] Group 2: Deere and Co. - Deere has faced significant challenges due to the trade war, with an expected tariff headwind of over $1.2 billion before taxes in 2026 [5] - Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates in fiscal Q4 2025, the company provided muted guidance due to ongoing sales headwinds [5][7] - The stock has struggled to gain momentum, facing resistance at the 200-day SMA and showing signs of declining momentum [7] Group 3: Tesla Inc. - Tesla's stock is highly volatile, trading at over 300 times earnings and facing declining vehicle sales in Europe and competition in China [8] - The expiration of the EV tax credit and lower emission standards in the U.S. are additional headwinds for the company [8] - Technical indicators suggest that Tesla shares may be approaching a new resistance level, with potential downside if they fail to break through [10] Group 4: United Parcel Service Inc. - UPS is facing challenges from tariff policies and a significant drop in volume from Amazon, which was down over 21% in Q3 [11] - Despite beating earnings expectations, the company provided tepid guidance, indicating ongoing struggles [11][13] - The stock has encountered resistance at the 200-day SMA, with multiple technical signals pointing to potential downside [13] Group 5: Vistra Corp. - Vistra reported a significant earnings miss for Q3 2025, missing revenue projections by over 23% [14] - The company is facing pressure from volatile natural gas prices and currently trades at high valuation multiples [14][16] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with the stock dipping below the 50-day SMA and a potential plunge below the 200-day SMA looming [16]

Financial Performance - UPS's net income has significantly decreased, with $6.7 billion and $5.8 billion reported in the previous two years, and a current net profit of $3.8 billion for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The pilot group at UPS has expanded due to a transport contract with the U.S. Postal Service and overall market strength, growing from 3,200 pilots three years ago [1] Labor Relations and Contract Negotiations - UPS pilots extended their contract in 2022 for two additional years to allow the Teamsters union to negotiate for ground workers, with the pilot contract eligible for amendment since September 1 [2] - The National Mediation Board has facilitated talks between UPS and the Independent Pilots Association (IPA), representing 3,500 UPS pilots, after 18 months of stalled negotiations [3] - Initial negotiations with a federal mediator occurred via video conferencing, with in-person discussions scheduled to move to Boston in January [4] Industry Context - UPS and FedEx pilots are advocating for better pay and benefits, citing their contributions during the COVID-19 pandemic that helped maintain profit growth [5] - The grounding of over 60 MD-11 freighters has left hundreds of UPS and FedEx pilots idle, impacting contract negotiations [7][13] - Labor relations in the airline industry are governed by the Railway Act, which restricts strikes and lockouts until extensive bargaining steps are completed [8] FedEx Comparison - FedEx pilots are also experiencing prolonged contract negotiations, with their talks starting in March 2021 and currently in federal mediation [13] - FedEx's recent offer included a 24% immediate pay increase and a total of 40% over the agreement's duration, aiming to make its pilots the highest paid in the cargo industry [19]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is showing potential for a bullish trend as it has recently surpassed a key technical level of support and the 200-day moving average, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1][2]. Technical Analysis - UPS has recently crossed above the 200-day simple moving average, which is a significant indicator of long-term market trends and serves as a support level [2]. - The stock has appreciated by 5.7% over the past four weeks, reflecting a positive price movement [2]. Earnings Estimates - There have been 9 upward revisions in UPS's earnings estimates for the current fiscal year, with no downward revisions, indicating strong investor confidence [3]. - The consensus earnings estimate for UPS has also increased, further supporting the bullish sentiment around the stock [3]. Investment Sentiment - UPS is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that the stock may continue to experience upward momentum in the near future [2][3].

Coverage and Network Capability - FedEx focuses on major urban areas in Uganda, particularly Kampala, with strong air freight connections to North America and Asia, but has limited service points in remote areas [2] - DHL has a wide distribution network in Uganda, covering both urban centers and many towns, with a balanced global network, especially in Europe and Africa, though it may rely on partners for last-mile delivery [2] - UPS also concentrates on major cities in Uganda, with a strong ground transportation and warehousing network globally, but has limited coverage in remote areas [2] Transportation Timeliness and Reliability - FedEx offers various service options, including priority and economy services, with priority service providing faster delivery but subject to weather and customs delays [3] - DHL maintains consistent timeliness, especially for documents and small packages, but may experience delays during peak periods; it excels in real-time tracking [3] - UPS has similar timeliness to FedEx and DHL, with potential advantages in certain routes, but delivery times can fluctuate due to customs and infrastructure issues [3] Cost Structure and Value for Money - FedEx's pricing is based on package weight, size, and destination, with higher costs for priority services but more economical options available for non-urgent shipments; additional fees may apply [7] - DHL's pricing structure is transparent, often including basic shipping and tax fees, but additional costs may arise for special handling or customs duties [7] - UPS's pricing is competitive, particularly for shipments to North America, but users should be aware of additional fees for address changes or redelivery [7] Customs Support and Services - FedEx provides customs assistance, including document review and tax payment, but effectiveness can vary based on destination country policies [8] - DHL offers strong customs support, helping users prepare necessary documents, though efficiency ultimately depends on local customs processes [8] - UPS provides standardized customs support similar to DHL, but may face challenges with complex customs issues in certain countries [8] User Service and Experience - FedEx offers comprehensive online services, including tracking and customer support, but may experience delays in information updates [9] - DHL provides stable user services with real-time tracking and multiple customer support channels, though wait times may increase during peak periods [9] - UPS emphasizes convenience in user services, with online tools for ordering and payment, but in-person assistance is limited in some areas [9] Applicable Scenarios and Selection Recommendations - FedEx is suitable for urgent shipments to North America or Asia, particularly for high-value items, but costs are higher; economy services are better for budget-conscious users [10] - DHL is versatile for personal packages, commercial samples, and documents, with a reliable global network and good tracking capabilities [10] - UPS is ideal for shipments requiring land and air transport to Europe, with potential cost savings for frequent shippers [10] - Overall, users in Uganda should weigh package type, destination, budget, and timeliness when choosing between FedEx, DHL, and UPS, as each has unique strengths [10]