[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 02 月 14 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 卢柯源 邮箱：luky3＠tebon.com.cn 社融开年放量，债强贷弱格局延续 ——2026 年 1 月金融数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 分部门来看，企业端仍是主力但同比走弱。1 月企（事）业单位贷款新增 4.45 万 亿元，同比少增 3300 亿元。结构上呈现"短端偏强、长端仍大但少增"的格局： 企业短期贷款新增 2.05 万亿元，同比多增 3100 亿元，反映年初经营周转与流动 资金需求偏旺；企业中长期贷款新增 3.18 万亿元，虽保持高投放，但同比少增 2800 亿元，显示项目贷投放仍在发力、但边际上不及去年同期。票据融资当月净减少 8739 亿元，同比多减 3590 亿元，也意味着"以票据冲量"的成分不高，信贷更 多体现为对实体贷款投放，但同时也侧面反映部分融资需求仍偏谨慎。 居民端边际改善但按揭仍偏弱。1 月住户贷款新增 4565 亿元，同比小幅多增 12 ...

所属行业：电子/半导体 当前价格(元)：77.49 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 57% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 紫光国微 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -0.38 | 1.93 | 3.28 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 1.09 | -1.09 | 1.69 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 买入（维持） 相关研究 1.《紫光国微（002049.SZ）：业绩与新 品拐点向上，股权激励助推长期价 值》，2025.10.13 2.《紫光国微（002049.SZ）：特种业务 有望反转，高研发投入将进入收获 期》，2025.4.28 3.《紫光国微（002049.SZ）：特种信息 化加速，汽车电子打开新增长极》， 2025.4.15 紫光国微（002049.SZ）：补 "链"强"链"，激发协同效应 投资要点 证券研究报告 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and adjustment on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to 4082.07 points, below the 4100-point mark [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.28% to 14100.19 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.57% to 3275.96 points, indicating a broad market decline with 3824 stocks falling and only 1537 rising [4] - For the entire year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 58.73% [4] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector was the only one to gain, up 0.46%, driven by advancements in commercial aerospace technology and geopolitical tensions [6] - Semiconductor equipment index rose by 1.65%, benefiting from increased demand for storage chips and AI computing power [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant decline of 3.31%, influenced by fluctuations in international precious metal prices [6] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed mixed performance, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.04% to 112.84 yuan, while the 10-year contract fell by 0.10% to 108.505 yuan [8] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 613.5 billion yuan, leading to a significant decline in short-term interest rates [8] - The market is expected to remain confident in the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy, which may support bond market recovery [8] Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 1.69%, with industrial products leading the decline, particularly in precious metals and energy [8] - The main crude oil contract dropped by 4.22% to 456.3 yuan per barrel, amid concerns over supply surplus [8] - Soybean prices surged to a one-year high, driven by supply-demand factors and weather conditions in Brazil [8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a balanced allocation in technology and consumer sectors, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals for future growth [8][12] - The report highlights several hot investment themes, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and robotics, indicating strong future potential [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the acquisition of Ruineng Semiconductor by the company is a strategically significant move that enhances its vertical integration in the power semiconductor industry, aligning with the rapid growth trends in the global power semiconductor market, particularly in the fields of new energy and electric vehicles [5][8] - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, adjusting the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 67.80 billion, 84.95 billion, and 108.27 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 16.15 billion, 21.52 billion, and 28.81 billion yuan [8] Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a fluctuation with a 1-month change of -11%, a 2-month change of 0%, and a 3-month change of 11% [2] - Absolute growth rates for the company are reported as -0.38% for 1 month, 1.93% for 2 months, and 3.28% for 3 months, while relative growth rates are 1.09%, -1.09%, and 1.69% respectively [3] Financial Data and Forecasts - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,576 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to decline to 5,511 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 6,780 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 8,495 million yuan in 2026, reaching 10,827 million yuan in 2027 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2,532 million yuan, with projections of 1,179 million yuan for 2024, 1,615 million yuan for 2025, 2,152 million yuan for 2026, and 2,881 million yuan for 2027 [7] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 40.75 for 2025, decreasing to 30.59 in 2026 and 22.86 in 2027, reflecting an improving valuation as earnings grow [8] Strategic Acquisition - The acquisition of Ruineng Semiconductor is expected to provide the company with a complete IDM capability in power semiconductors, enhancing its product offerings and market competitiveness [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for synergistic benefits from the acquisition, including enhanced R&D capabilities and market access through combined customer networks [5][6]

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with the technology sector leading the gains. On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 4134.02 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.86% and the ChiNext Index by 1.32%. The total trading volume for the day was 2.16 trillion yuan, compared to 2 trillion yuan the previous day [6][7]. - The technology sector is showing strong performance, particularly in AI computing concepts, with companies like Dazhi Technology recording four consecutive trading limits. Additionally, the resource sector is also on the rise, with small metal concepts seeing gains due to a decrease in Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 [7][8]. Currency and Policy Impact - The continuous strength of the RMB is driving the spring market rally, with the USD/CNY exchange rate breaking through 6.9. This upward trend in the RMB is contributing to a relatively strong market, despite a decrease in trading volume as the Chinese New Year approaches [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the spring market will continue, with a focus on policy and event-driven sensitive themes. Key sectors expected to perform well include photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals [8]. Bond Market - The bond market is showing narrow fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.03% and the 10-year contract up by 0.02%. The People's Bank of China has conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity expectation [12][9]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains positive, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and ongoing demand for bond investments [12][9]. Commodity Market - The commodity market is mixed, with some prices rising and others falling. Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 3.66%, driven by low inventory levels, while other commodities like palm oil have seen declines [12][13]. - The report highlights that the low inventory of lithium carbonate, currently at 107,056 tons, may provide upward price momentum in the future, especially as demand is expected to grow post-holiday [12][13]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot trading varieties include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [14][15]. - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in technology and consumer sectors, with a focus on low-cost opportunities as the market continues to evolve [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The satellite internet sector is transitioning from a communication hub to a computing intermediary, with a significant increase in the number of satellites reported globally by the end of 2025 [3] - SpaceX's application to deploy up to 1 million satellites aims to create a dual barrier of "physical space + spectrum resources," forcing global space powers to reassess the strategic value of orbital assets [3] - The shift to orbital computing could alleviate the energy crisis faced by ground-based AI data centers, utilizing near-infinite solar energy and natural cooling in a vacuum environment [3] - The aggressive satellite deployment plan by SpaceX is expected to catalyze the domestic industry, enhancing China's position in the satellite internet market and accelerating the transition from policy-driven to market-driven growth [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications sector has shown a performance range from -34% to +103% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified periods [2] Related Research - The report references several studies that highlight the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the satellite internet and AI sectors, indicating a growing interest and investment potential in these areas [3] Suggested Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring several companies, including Xinke Mobile, Aerospace Huanyu, Aerospace Electronics, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the developments in the satellite internet industry [3]

Labor Market Insights - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 70,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, surpassing expectations[2] - Hourly wage growth increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year[2] - The total employment figure for 2025 was revised down by 862,000[2] Sectoral Employment Trends - Job growth in January was concentrated in healthcare (82,000 jobs), social assistance (42,000 jobs), and construction (33,000 jobs)[2] - The number of part-time workers decreased by 453,000, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market[2] - The number of individuals wanting to work but not in the labor force fell by 399,000[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the non-farm data release, the market initially pushed back the June rate cut expectation to July, but later adjusted to favor a June cut probability of 47.1%[2][10] - U.S. Treasury yields rose post-data release, while gold prices experienced temporary fluctuations but remained stable[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, indicating market uncertainty[2] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on trade and financial markets[12] - Geopolitical crises, particularly in the Middle East, may heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[12] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economic environment[12]

Market Performance - The overall performance of A-shares shows an increase in the earnings forecast rate, with a pre-announcement rate of 37% for 2025, up from 33.6% in 2024[5] - As of February 6, 2026, 54% of A-share companies have disclosed their earnings forecasts for 2025, compared to 51.2% in 2024[5] Sector Insights - The semiconductor and CXO sectors are expected to show strong performance, with the semiconductor equipment sector outperforming materials and components[2] - The non-bank financial sector has a pre-announcement rate exceeding 50%, with a median profit growth rate of 76.1%, while the real estate sector shows a median profit decline of 18.5%[11] Consumer Market - The overall retail sales growth for 2025 is projected at 3.7%, with service consumption growing at 5.5%, outperforming goods retail growth of 3.8%[13] - During the 2026 Spring Festival, domestic flight bookings increased by approximately 15% compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand[19] Healthcare Sector - The pharmaceutical and biotech sector shows a mixed recovery, with 10% of companies expected to turn profitable, while 49% are projected to incur losses[21] - Notable companies like WuXi AppTec are expected to see a net profit increase of 102.65% in 2025, reaching 19.15 billion yuan[25] High-end Manufacturing - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales in January 2026 reaching 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%[28] - The domestic sales of excavators increased by 61.4%, indicating strong internal demand recovery[30]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced slight volume contraction and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points on February 11, 2026. The overall trading volume was 2 trillion yuan, down from 2.12 trillion yuan the previous day [5][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded market expectations, contributing to the outperformance of cyclical sectors. The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month [6][7]. - Key sectors such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals saw significant gains, with increases of 3.29%, 2.39%, and 2.18% respectively [6][7]. Bond Market - Government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.05% to 112.750 yuan. The 10-year main contract rose by 0.06% to 108.540 yuan [10]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan into the market, maintaining a stable liquidity expectation [10]. Commodity Market - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 9.18%. Basic metals also experienced gains, with nickel rising by 4.02% [10]. - The increase in nickel prices was attributed to production cuts in Indonesia, which reduced the approved nickel mining quota for 2026 compared to 2025 [10]. - The rise in lithium carbonate prices was influenced by low trading volumes ahead of the Spring Festival, with total industry inventory at a one-year low of 107,056 tons [10]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, with a focus on technological advancements and policy support [11][12]. - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in technology and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on low-cost entry points [13]. Core Thoughts Summary - The market is showing a differentiated upward trend, with a continuation of the spring rally. Short-term effects from the pre-holiday period are evident, and a balanced allocation in technology and consumption is recommended [13]. - The bond market is expected to remain favorable due to a generally loose monetary policy and ongoing demand for bond investments [13]. - In the commodity sector, fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated due to margin adjustments, while the long-term outlook remains positive [13].

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]