Here's What to Expect From Travelers (TRV) in Q2 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Travelers Companies, Inc. is expected to report second-quarter 2024 earnings on July 19, with mixed performance in previous quarters, delivering an earnings surprise in one quarter while missing in three others [1] Factors to Consider - Improved performance across all three segments is anticipated to positively impact Travelers' second-quarter results [2] - Premiums are projected to reach $10.4 billion, reflecting a 13% increase year-over-year, with estimates suggesting a 9.1% rise to$ 10.6 billion [2] - Investment results are expected to benefit from favorable interest rates and higher average invested assets, with net investment income estimated to increase by 13% to $868.7 million [2] Segment Performance - The Personal Insurance segment is likely to see growth, with earned premiums estimated at$ 4.1 billion, indicating an 11.2% improvement year-over-year [3] - Total revenues are projected at $11.5 billion, representing a 13.2% increase from the previous year [3] Underwriting Profitability - Better pricing and increased exposure are expected to enhance underwriting profitability, with the combined ratio estimated at 100, improving by 380 basis points year-over-year [4] - Expenses are anticipated to rise by 4.4% to$ 10.6 billion due to higher claims and administrative costs [4] - Ongoing share buybacks are expected to further support the bottom line [4] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings per share is $2.49, suggesting a significant increase of 4,050% from the year-ago figure [5] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Travelers, as the Earnings ESP is -16.60%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at$ 2.07, lower than the consensus estimate [6] - Travelers holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook [6] Alternative Stock Considerations - Arch Capital Group has an Earnings ESP of +2.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a consensus estimate of $2.16, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year increase [7] - First American Financial has an Earnings ESP of +8.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a consensus estimate of$ 1.13, indicating a 16.3% decrease year-over-year [7] - W.R. Berkley Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a consensus estimate of 93 cents, implying a 22.4% increase from the previous year [8]