AST SpaceMobile: A Moonshot Investment Opportunity In The Direct-To-Cell Race

Core Viewpoint - AST SpaceMobile is positioned to disrupt the telecommunications industry by providing direct-to-cell services to smartphone users outside terrestrial cellular coverage, with the launch of its first five Block 1 BlueBird satellites expected next month, leading to anticipated revenues by Q4 this year [1][21]. Business Overview - AST is a vertically integrated space-based cellular broadband network provider with over 3350 patents and aims to operate a constellation of LEO satellites for direct mobile phone connectivity at broadband speeds [2]. - The company has secured 20 million in revenue commitments from AT&T and expects to start generating revenues in Q4 this year after testing its first five satellites [2]. Competitive Landscape - AST's technology is considered more advanced than competitors like SpaceX and Lynk, having achieved significant milestones such as the first 5G voice call and a data rate of 14 Mbps [11][12]. - AST's initial five Block 1 satellites and planned 20 Block 2 satellites can provide limited services in the US, requiring 90 satellites for full global coverage [14]. Revenue Projections - AST's revenue estimates for 2025 project 412.8 million, assuming 15% of AT&T and Verizon's users subscribe to its service at a monthly rate of $2 [15]. - Revenue projections for subsequent years show significant growth, with estimates reaching$3.7 billion by 2030, based on increasing user adoption from the "effective coverage gap" population [16]. Valuation - The target price for AST is set at $144 by 2030, implying a potential upside of 1018% from current levels, based on a target P/S ratio of 10 compared to SpaceX's P/S ratio of 15.79 [17][22].