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After Surging, Mayville Engineering Company Deserves More Upside
MECmec(MEC) Seeking Alpha·2024-08-19 14:28

Core Viewpoint - Mayville Engineering Company has shown significant financial improvement, leading to a strong buy rating due to its undervalued shares and positive growth trajectory [1][8]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 324.9million,a15.4324.9 million, a 15.4% increase from 281.6 million in the same period last year, driven by organic sales and an acquisition [2]. - Net income nearly doubled from 4.2millionto4.2 million to 7 million, with adjusted net profits growing from 7.6millionto7.6 million to 10.1 million [3]. - Operating cash flow improved from negative 5.9milliontopositive5.9 million to positive 33.9 million, and EBITDA rose from 29.1millionto29.1 million to 38.2 million [3]. Quarterly Insights - In the second quarter of 2024, revenue increased by 17.7% year-over-year to 163.6million,withnetincomegrowingfrom163.6 million, with net income growing from 1.6 million to 3.8million[3].Adjustedoperatingcashflowsoaredfrom3.8 million [3]. - Adjusted operating cash flow soared from 0.2 million to 23.3million,andEBITDAexpandedfrom23.3 million, and EBITDA expanded from 15.3 million to 19.6million[3].FutureProjectionsManagementanticipatesfullyear2024revenuebetween19.6 million [3]. Future Projections - Management anticipates full-year 2024 revenue between 620 million and 640million,representinga7.1640 million, representing a 7.1% increase from 2023 [4]. - Expected EBITDA for 2024 is projected between 72 million and 76million,withadjustedoperatingcashflowanticipatedat76 million, with adjusted operating cash flow anticipated at 38.5 million [4]. Valuation Metrics - Mayville Engineering Company is valued attractively compared to peers, with a price to operating cash flow of 10.3 and an EV to EBITDA of 7.0, lower than five comparable firms [6]. - Future market capitalization could reach 642.7million,suggestinganannualizedreturnof21.4642.7 million, suggesting an annualized return of 21.4% over the next two and a half years [7]. Management Outlook - Management forecasts annualized revenue of 750 million to 850millionforthe2026fiscalyear,withEBITDAexpectedbetween850 million for the 2026 fiscal year, with EBITDA expected between 105 million and $135 million [5].