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Northwestern Energy: Doing Better Than The Stock Price Performance Suggests
NWENorthWestern (NWE) Seeking Alpha·2024-09-12 18:05

Core Viewpoint - Northwestern Energy Group, Inc. is a regulated electric and natural gas utility operating in rural areas of the U.S., particularly Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska, with a focus on stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields amidst recession fears [1][7][14] Company Overview - Northwestern Energy Group serves approximately 470,300 electric and 326,700 natural gas customers, with the majority located in Montana [4][9] - The company operates 25,274 miles of electric transmission and distribution lines and 7,390 miles of natural gas pipelines, indicating a significant infrastructure investment [4] - The customer base has shown growth, particularly in Montana, where the population is increasing at a rate of 1.5% annually [8][9] Financial Performance - The company's operating cash flow for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2024, was 419.1million,upfrom419.1 million, up from 368.4 million the previous year, indicating growth [8][11] - Net income increased by 19% to 209.2millionforthesameperiod,withdilutedearningspersharerisingfrom209.2 million for the same period, with diluted earnings per share rising from 2.99 to 3.42,a14.383.42, a 14.38% increase [11][12] - Despite strong earnings growth, the stock price has underperformed compared to earnings, suggesting a potential investment opportunity [11][14] Market Context - The utility sector has been affected by recession fears, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 2.18% recently, which may enhance the appeal of stable utility investments like Northwestern Energy [6][7] - The company offers a dividend yield of 4.76%, which becomes more attractive as interest rates are expected to decline [1][11] Growth Prospects - Northwestern Energy Group plans to invest 2.5 billion in infrastructure from 2024 to 2028, which is expected to support growth in its rate base and earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 4% to 6% [8][11] - The company benefits from demographic trends, with a growing customer base reflecting the population increase in its service areas [8][9] Valuation - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Northwestern Energy Group is 15.48, which is slightly undervalued compared to its peers, making it an attractive option for potential investors [12][13]