中泰证券：铝全产业链正在经历资源属性重估下的价格重塑

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a significant transformation in the electrolytic aluminum sector, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a revaluation of resource attributes and price restructuring in the entire aluminum industry chain [1] Supply Side - The reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, and its concentration is rising, indicating that bauxite is no longer an absolute surplus resource, and its resource value is undergoing reassessment [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, while overseas incremental capacity is limited and costly, highlighting the "resource-like" attributes of the electrolytic aluminum segment [1] Demand Side - The ongoing counter-cyclical adjustments in the domestic market are expected to alleviate the drag from traditional demand [1] - Demand from the new energy sector, including electric vehicles and photovoltaics, is anticipated to drive a trend of recovery in electrolytic aluminum demand, with a growth rate of approximately 2% to 3% [1] Industry Outlook - The judgment is maintained that the prosperity of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain may exhibit a spiral upward trend, as profound changes on both supply and demand sides are reshaping the entire aluminum industry chain under the revaluation of resource attributes [1]