Why Is Axis Capital (AXS) Up 19.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Axis Capital has shown a positive performance with a 19.9% increase in shares over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1]. Financial Performance - Axis Capital reported Q3 2024 operating income of $2.71 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.4$1.5 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%, and increased by 6.2% year over year due to higher net investment income and premiums [3]. - Net premiums written surged 27% to $1.2 billion, driven by a 10$205 million, primarily due to increased yields from the fixed maturities portfolio [4]. Expense Overview - Total expenses increased 13% year over year to $1.4 billion, attributed to higher net losses, acquisition costs, and financing costs [5]. Underwriting Performance - Pre-tax catastrophe and weather-related losses amounted to$78 million, wider than the previous year's loss of $42 million, with underwriting income decreasing 8$135.1 million [6]. - The combined ratio deteriorated by 40 basis points to 93.1, slightly better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 [6]. Segment Analysis - In the insurance segment, gross premiums written improved 4.7% year over year to $1.5 billion, while net premiums earned increased 15.6$1 billion [7]. - In the reinsurance segment, gross premiums written decreased 8.7% year over year to $409 million, with net premiums earned down 21.5$342.8 million [8]. Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, Axis Capital had cash and cash equivalents of $981 million, a 2.9$1.3 billion, up 0.08% [9]. - Book value per share increased 19.6% from the end of 2023 to $64.65 [10]. Capital Management - Axis Capital has$260 million remaining under its share repurchase program as of September 30, 2024 [11]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates for Axis Capital have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -9.21% [12][13]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [15]. Industry Context - Axis Capital operates within the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, where another player, Selective Insurance, has gained 12.3% over the past month [16].