US Oil Imports Set for Multidecade Low in 2025: Who Benefits?

Industry Overview - US crude oil production is expected to increase to 13 52 million barrels per day (MMBbl/D) in 2025, up from 13 24 MMBbl/D in 2024 [4] - Net crude imports in the US are projected to decline by more than 20% to 1 9 million barrels per day in 2025, the lowest level since 1971 [2] - Global crude demand for 2025 is revised downward from 104 4 MMBbl/D to 104 3 MMBbl/D [5] - The average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price is forecasted to drop to $69 12 per barrel in 2025 from$76 51 in 2024 [5] Upstream Sector - Exploration and production companies are expected to benefit from increased domestic production and reduced import volumes [4] - EOG Resources Inc (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are positioned for continued profitability due to lower breakeven WTI prices, especially for existing wells [6] - EOG Resources has an extensive inventory of high-quality drilling wells in low-cost, premium resources, ensuring a strong business outlook [9] - ConocoPhillips has a solid production outlook due to its diversified upstream asset base and efficient drilling and completion activities in key US basins [10] Midstream Sector - Higher crude production and lower imports will increase demand for transportation and storage assets, benefiting midstream companies [11] - Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) operates a 79,000-mile pipeline network, transporting natural gas, gasoline, crude oil, and carbon dioxide [12] - Enbridge Inc (ENB) operates the world's longest and most complex crude oil and liquids transportation network, spanning 18,085 miles, and a gas transportation pipeline network covering 71,308 miles [13] Commodity Export Trends - Crude export volumes are expected to increase due to rising crude availability from refinery retirements and increased production [3]