CICC(601995) 证券时报网·2024-12-17 00:07Industry Outlook - Paper demand is expected to recover with moderate growth by 2025, driven by policy support for consumption [1] - The supply side is nearing the end of the capacity cycle, making it easier to restore balance in the boxboard and cultural paper markets [1] - Pulp prices are likely to stabilize at the bottom and fluctuate thereafter [1] Company Selection - Companies with strong safety margins and a balanced offensive-defensive strategy are preferred [1] Resource Scarcity - The scarcity of companies with high-quality forest land and pulp resources is increasing in the medium to long term [2] - Global new commodity pulp capacity has exceeded 8 million tons since 2023, accounting for over 10% of 2023's commodity pulp capacity [3] - The next large-scale commodity pulp project is not expected until 2027, with no high-certainty large projects in the interim [3] - Upstream wood chips and pulp resources are expected to become tighter due to continued global economic growth [3] - Companies with high-quality forest land and pulp resources are viewed favorably [3]