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Heritage Insurance Trades Above 50-Day SMA: What to Do With the Stock?
HRTGHeritage Insurance (HRTG) ZACKS·2024-12-19 18:00

Core Viewpoint - Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) is experiencing a bullish trend in its stock performance, supported by strong year-to-date growth and favorable technical indicators [1][4]. Company Performance - HRTG shares have increased by 76.1% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 24.6%, the Finance sector's return of 16%, and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's rise of 24% [4]. - The average target price for HRTG is set at 16.00pershare,indicatingapotentialupsideof39.416.00 per share, indicating a potential upside of 39.4% from the recent closing price [7]. Analyst Sentiment - The consensus estimates for 2024 and 2025 earnings have decreased by 3.8% and 4.4%, respectively, over the past 60 days [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 suggests a year-over-year decrease of 23.4%, while the estimate for 2025 indicates a significant increase of 62.7% [8]. Underwriting and Profitability - HRTG is focusing on rate adequacy and selective profit-oriented underwriting, which are expected to enhance profitability [9]. - The company has ceased writing new personal lines policies in Florida and the Northeast due to declining profitability and tightening reinsurance markets [9]. Business Strategy - HRTG is experiencing a decline in policy count, but average premiums per policy have increased, with expectations that the decline in policies will moderate in the coming quarters [10]. - The excess and surplus (E&S) business is identified as a growth opportunity, with plans to explore expansion into more states [10]. Reinsurance and Financial Health - HRTG's reinsurance program is designed to mitigate exposure to severe weather events, with expectations of a substantial reduction in the ceded premium ratio due to improvements in the reinsurance program [11]. - The company has approved a share repurchase program worth 10 million, although its debt has increased by 2.4% as of September 30, 2024, which is unfavorable compared to industry averages [12]. Return on Capital - HRTG's return on equity over the trailing 12 months was 29.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.6% [13]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) for HRTG was 19.7%, also exceeding the industry average of 5.8% [13]. Valuation - HRTG's stock is currently undervalued, trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.26, lower than the industry average of 1.51 [14]. - The company has a Value Score of A, indicating strong valuation metrics compared to peers [14]. Growth Prospects - The company is expected to benefit from a growing commercial residential business, improved E&S business, better pricing, and expanding margins, which bode well for future growth [15].