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Walmart Stock Surges 76% in 2024: Is WMT Still a Buy for 2025?
WMTWalmart(WMT) ZACKS·2024-12-26 14:06

Stock Performance - Walmart's stock has surged 76.4% year-to-date in 2024, outperforming the industry's 72.8% growth, the Zacks Retail – Wholesale sector's 30.5% growth, and the S&P 500's 27.7% increase [1][15] - The stock currently trades at 92.68,3.692.68, 3.6% below its 52-week high of 96.18 and 78.7% above its 52-week low of 51.87[15]WMTtradesaboveits50and200daymovingaverages,indicatingstrongupwardmomentumandpricestability[16]EcommerceandOmnichannelStrategyWalmartsglobalonlinesalesgrew2751.87 [15] - WMT trades above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating strong upward momentum and price stability [16] E-commerce and Omnichannel Strategy - Walmart's global online sales grew 27% in Q3 FY2025, driven by pickup & delivery and marketplace offerings [4] - Over 50% of fulfillment center volume is now automated, reflecting significant investment in supply chain technology [4] - The company's omnichannel approach, including curbside pickup and innovations like Sam's Club's "Just Go" checkout, has attracted higher-income households, which now contribute 75% of U.S. share gains [7] Revenue Diversification - Advertising revenue grew 28% in Q3, driven by Walmart Connect and international platforms like Flipkart [8] - Membership programs, including Walmart+ and Sam's Club, delivered double-digit growth [8] - These high-margin businesses enhance profitability and deepen customer engagement [8] Financial Performance and Guidance - Walmart raised its FY2025 guidance, expecting consolidated net sales growth of 4.8-5.1% (constant currency) and adjusted operating income growth of 8.5-9.25% [20] - Adjusted EPS for FY2025 is projected to be 2.42-2.47,upfrom2.47, up from 2.22 in FY2024 [20] - Q4 projections indicate a deceleration, with constant-currency sales growth of 3%-4% and operating income growth of 5%-7.5%, compared to Q3 growth rates of 6.2% and 9.8%, respectively [13] Challenges and Risks - Margin pressures are emerging due to shifts in the product mix, particularly the growth of GLP-1 drug sales in the health and wellness segment [12] - SG&A expenses have risen due to incentive payments for frontline associates and increased marketing investments [24] - Inflation in consumables and food sectors, along with currency fluctuations, continue to threaten margins [24] Valuation - Walmart's forward 12-month P/E ratio stands at 34.2, above the industry average of 31.26, suggesting a premium valuation [22] - The company holds a Value Score of C, indicating caution regarding its pricing [12] International Operations - Walmart's international operations in key regions like Mexico (Walmex), India (Flipkart and PhonePe), and China play a pivotal role in its long-term growth strategy [19]