CICC(601995) 证券时报网·2024-12-30 00:59Industry Overview - The leasing industry is expected to benefit from a marginally looser monetary environment both domestically and internationally, leading to improved financing costs by 2025 [1] - The overall leasing market size may shrink in the short term due to stricter risk compliance regulations, a shift towards "asset-based" leasing, and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] - The industry is expected to maintain high allocation value in 2025, driven by state-owned enterprise market value management guidance, sufficient capital space, and long-term shareholder dividend demands [4] Aircraft Leasing - The aircraft leasing industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2025 due to tight supply and demand dynamics [5] - Asset prices are expected to remain high, but tight delivery conditions may make it difficult for lessors to expand their balance sheets [5] - Overall profitability is expected to steadily improve, with individual profit indicators depending on fleet structure, delivery conditions, and liability improvement sensitivity [5] Ship Leasing - The ship leasing industry faces high uncertainty due to complex supply and demand factors across different ship types [2] - Stock selection should focus on companies with strong competitive assets, cost control capabilities, and generous dividends [2] General Equipment Leasing - The traditional business model of serving urban investment and focusing on sale-leaseback may become unsustainable [3] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards "asset-based" leasing under stricter regulatory guidance [3] Dividend Trends - Major leasing companies have shown a steady increase in dividend payout ratios in recent years [6] - Dividend returns in the leasing industry are relatively abundant [6]