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AAOI Surges 184% in 6 Months: Should You Hold or Fold the Stock?
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics(AAOI) ZACKS·2025-01-14 16:26

Core Insights - Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) shares have surged 184.2% in the past six months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry, and the S&P 500 index, which returned 1.1%, 11.9%, and 3.9% respectively, indicating strong investor confidence in AAOI's position in the fiber optic networking market [1] Key End Markets Driving AAOI's Growth - AAOI manufactures fiber optic networking products for four primary end markets: Internet data center, cable television (CATV), telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home, with notable growth in CATV and Internet data center sectors [1] - The shift towards AI-focused data centers is increasing demand for AAOI's 400G and 800G products, which provide high-speed optical interconnect solutions [3] - The global hyperscale computing market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.7%, reaching 109.2billionby2028,presentingsignificantexpansionopportunitiesforAAOI[4]IntheCATVmarket,thetransitiontodataovercableserviceinterfaces4.0architectureisdrivingdemandforAAOIs1.8GHzamplifiers,contributingtooptimisticsalesandearningsgrowthestimatesfor2025[5]FinancialPerformanceandEstimatesZacksConsensusEstimatesforAAOIssalesshowaprojectedincreasefrom109.2 billion by 2028, presenting significant expansion opportunities for AAOI [4] - In the CATV market, the transition to data over cable service interfaces 4.0 architecture is driving demand for AAOI's 1.8 GHz amplifiers, contributing to optimistic sales and earnings growth estimates for 2025 [5] Financial Performance and Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates for AAOI's sales show a projected increase from 60.45 million in the year-ago quarter to 100.23millioninthecurrentquarter,reflectingayearoveryeargrowthestimateof65.81100.23 million in the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 65.81% [7] - The company is expected to report a loss of 0.02 in the current quarter, with a significant turnaround projected for the next year, estimating earnings of $1.01 [7] Challenges Facing AAOI - Despite its strengths, AAOI faces challenges from competitors like Corning, Cisco, and Lumentum, which are innovating in the fiber-optic networking market, projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.4% from 2024 to 2029 [8] - Rising operational costs due to increased R&D spending and shipping expenses are impacting AAOI's gross margin, which contracted to 25% in Q3 2024 from 32.5% in the previous year [10][11] Conclusion - AAOI is positioned to benefit from the growing fiber-optics networking space, particularly in AI and hyperscale computing applications, but rising costs are affecting its margins [12]