以岭药业：库存风险出清，业绩短期承压换长期发展

Core Viewpoint - Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ), a leading innovative traditional Chinese medicine company, forecasts a significant net loss of 600 to 800 million yuan for 2024 due to multiple short-term adverse factors affecting its performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company plans to reduce sales revenue from certain respiratory products nearing expiration and will recognize asset impairment losses on inventory, contributing to the expected losses [1] - The decline in revenue, rising raw material prices leading to decreased gross margins, and sustained high R&D investments are cited as reasons for the substantial reduction in operating profit [1] Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Despite the poor financial outlook, the company's operational situation is not as dire as the profit figures suggest, as the impairment of inventory risks is being addressed, which may benefit long-term growth [2] - The high inventory levels resulting from increased demand for Yiling's products during widespread respiratory diseases have led to market demand decline, impacting performance [2] Group 3: Raw Material Prices and Future Outlook - The pressure from rising raw material prices has been gradually alleviated since the second half of 2024, with the comprehensive index for traditional Chinese medicine materials dropping nearly 20% from historical highs [3] - The downward trend in raw material prices is expected to benefit Yiling's profitability in the long run, despite potential impairment pressures on related inventory [3] Group 4: R&D Investment and Long-term Strategy - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, which may negatively impact short-term profits but is crucial for long-term growth, particularly in the patented traditional Chinese medicine sector [4] - Yiling is positioned favorably in the market, focusing on innovation and international expansion, with several new drug applications and clinical trials progressing well [4][5] Group 5: New Product Developments - Yiling's subsidiary has recently received approval for a new traditional Chinese medicine aimed at treating persistent allergic rhinitis, increasing its portfolio of innovative patented medicines to 15 [5] - The company plans to continue submitting one to two new drug applications annually, with expectations for sustained growth supported by ongoing high R&D investments [5]