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DECK Outperforms Its Industry in 3 Months: A Bullish Signal Ahead?
DECKDeckers(DECK) ZACKS·2025-01-23 17:36

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has significantly outperformed the retail-apparel and shoes industry, driven by enhanced operational efficiency and growth initiatives, with a stock price increase of 41.4% over the past three months compared to the industry's 22.2% growth [1]. Performance Metrics - DECK's stock closed at 214.92,aboveits50dayand200daymovingaveragesof214.92, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of 198.50 and 165.63,indicatingapositivemarketsentimentandinvestorconfidence[4].Thestockiscurrently1.6165.63, indicating a positive market sentiment and investor confidence [4]. - The stock is currently 1.6% below its 52-week high of 218.39, reached on January 21, 2025 [6]. Brand Performance - The company's flagship brands, UGG and HOKA, are key drivers of growth, with HOKA expected to become a multi-billion-dollar brand and UGG maintaining its status as a global lifestyle leader [8]. - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, HOKA sales increased by 34.7% year-over-year, while UGG sales grew by 13% [9]. Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Growth - DECK's DTC business saw a 19.9% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching 397.7million,withcomparablesalesrisingby17397.7 million, with comparable sales rising by 17% [10]. - The company anticipates a 12.6% growth in DTC revenues for fiscal 2025 [10]. Wholesale Channel Performance - Wholesale revenues increased by 20.2% year-over-year in Q2, totaling 913.7 million, driven by strong performances from HOKA and UGG [11]. - HOKA and UGG's wholesale revenues rose by 33% and 14%, respectively, aided by early inventory shipments [12]. International Expansion - International sales grew by 33% year-over-year in Q2, supported by strong demand for UGG and HOKA [13]. - The company expects a 15.5% increase in revenues from international regions in fiscal 2025 [14]. Financial Outlook - DECK projects fiscal 2025 revenues of 4.8billion,reflectinga124.8 billion, reflecting a 12% increase from the previous year [15]. - The company has revised its gross margin guidance to 55-55.5% and raised its earnings per share (EPS) guidance to 5.15-5.25[16].AnalystSentimentAnalystshavepositivelyrevisedtheirEPSestimatesforDECK,withthecurrentconsensusestimateforthefiscalyearraisedto5.25 [16]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have positively revised their EPS estimates for DECK, with the current consensus estimate for the fiscal year raised to 5.56 per share [18]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales in the current and next fiscal years is projected at 4.89billionand4.89 billion and 5.40 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 14.1% and 10.4%, respectively [18]. Investment Appeal - DECK's strong market position, driven by innovation, robust DTC growth, and expanding global reach, makes it an attractive option for long-term investment [21].