Shell Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Shell plc (SHEL) is expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.78 per share on revenues of$80.1 billion [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings remained unchanged, indicating a 19.8% YoY drop, while revenue estimates suggest no significant change from the year-ago period [5] Previous Quarter Performance - In Q3, Shell reported earnings per ADS of $1.92, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$1.72, driven by strong production and higher LNG sales [3] - Q3 revenues of $72.5 billion were 14.3$2.87 billion, primarily due to the expiry of hedging contracts [7] - Natural gas production is projected to fall to 880,000-920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 941,000 in the previous quarter due to maintenance at Qatar's Pearl GTL plant [7] - LNG volumes are expected to decline to 6.8-7.2 million metric tons from 7.5 million, reflecting reduced feedgas deliveries and fewer cargoes [8] Impairments and Cash Flow Challenges - Shell plans to record a non-cash, post-tax impairment of $1.5 billion to$3 billion, with up to $1.2 billion stemming from its renewables division [9] - The company anticipates a$1.3 billion hit to cash flow from operations due to emission-permit payments in Germany and the United States [9] Trading and Seasonal Weakness - Shell's trading operations in both the Integrated Gas and Oil Products divisions are expected to post significantly weaker results than in Q3 [10] - Seasonal declines in demand and the expiration of hedging contracts have weighed on performance, while chemicals margins have remained depressed [10] Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - Shell's Earnings ESP is -18.69%, and it currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [12] Alternative Energy Stocks - Energy Transfer (ET) has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating 6.1% YoY growth for 2025 earnings per share [13][14] - Helmerich & Payne (HP) has an Earnings ESP of +4.57% and a Zacks Rank 3, with an average earnings surprise of 14.9% over the last four quarters [14][15] - MPLX LP (MPLX) has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating 3.5% YoY growth for 2025 earnings per share [15]