Will Weaker Steel Prices Weigh on Nucor's Earnings in Q4?

Company Overview - Nucor Corporation (NUE) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 27 [1] Earnings Performance - Nucor has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 7.4% [2] - The company reported a 6.4% earnings surprise in the last quarter [2] - For the fourth quarter, Nucor anticipates earnings in the range of 55-65 cents per share, a decline from $1.05 per share in the prior quarter and$3.16 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023 [8] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nucor's fourth-quarter consolidated revenues is $6,598 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 14.4$1,200 per short ton at the start of 2024 [11] - Current HRC prices are around $700 per short ton, with a modest recovery not expected in the near term due to weak manufacturing and demand [12] Sales and Production Metrics - The estimated average sales price per ton for Nucor's steel mills unit is$928, indicating an 8.6% year-over-year decrease and a 4% sequential decline [13] - Total sales tons to outside customers for steel mills are projected at 4,202,000 tons for the fourth quarter, suggesting an 8.8% decline from the prior quarter and a 4.4% year-over-year decrease [13]