Where Will Rigetti Computing Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing, a quantum computing company, has shown significant stock recovery after a tumultuous period, but it still faces challenges in proving its long-term viability and growth potential in the quantum computing market [2][3][11]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing went public via a SPAC merger on March 2, 2022, with an initial stock price of $9.75, which later fell to an all-time low of$0.38 by May 3, 2023, due to missed estimates and leadership changes [2][3]. - The company's stock has since rebounded to approximately $13.50, indicating a substantial recovery for investors who bought at the low [3]. Quantum Computing Technology - Quantum computers utilize quantum bits (qubits) to store data, allowing for simultaneous representation of zeros and ones, which enables faster processing of large data sets compared to traditional computers [4]. - Despite their advantages, quantum computers are currently larger, more expensive, and prone to errors, limiting their use primarily to research institutions and government agencies [5][6]. Product Development and Market Position - Rigetti designs and manufactures its own quantum processing units (QPUs) and offers a cloud infrastructure for quantum computing applications, positioning itself as a "full stack" player in the market [7]. - The company launched its Novera QPU, a 9-qubit commercial version, priced at$900,000, and received orders from notable customers [8]. Future Plans and Revenue Projections - Rigetti plans to introduce a modular quantum computing system this year and aims to deploy a nonmodular system with over 100 qubits by the end of 2026, along with a more powerful 336-qubit system in the coming years [10]. - Revenue projections indicate growth from $11 million in 2024 to$35 million in 2026, reflecting a 127% increase, although the company currently has a high enterprise value of $3.7 billion, trading at 105 times its projected 2026 sales [11]. Market Outlook - The quantum computing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 34.8$120 million in revenue by 2032 if it matches market growth [12]. - However, caution is advised as the CEO of Rigetti has suggested that investors temper their near-term expectations, and industry leaders like Nvidia's CEO have indicated that practical quantum computers may still be decades away [12].