Prediction: This Long-Awaited Catalyst Could Drive Rivian Stock Higher in 2025

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive faces concerns regarding the lack of visible catalysts in 2025, but a recent announcement about opening orders for its commercial vans could serve as a potential catalyst for growth [1][4][9] Group 1: Rivian's Commercial Van Strategy - Rivian has officially opened orders for its Rivian Commercial van, indicating a shift towards growth beyond its traditional truck and SUV offerings [4][6] - The company has been testing its commercial vans with larger fleets, which has shown positive results, suggesting readiness for broader market entry [4][5] - The last-mile delivery sector is increasingly adopting electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce costs, which could drive demand for Rivian's commercial vans [6] Group 2: Market Context and Comparisons - Ford's success with its E-Transit van, which saw a 64% increase in sales in 2024, highlights the potential for Rivian to capture market share in the commercial vehicle segment [5][7] - Ford Pro, the commercial division of Ford, generated $9.02 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in 2024, demonstrating the profitability of commercial vehicles [6] Group 3: Relationship with Amazon - The exclusivity of Rivian's deal with Amazon has ended, allowing Rivian to sell its electric delivery vans to other companies, which could enhance growth opportunities [3][8] - Amazon's investment in Rivian, which constitutes approximately 16% of the company, has been volatile, raising concerns about the strength of their relationship and potential impacts on Rivian's stock price [8]