交银国际上调蒙牛乳业的目标价至20.94港元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite the impact of impairment provisions on overall profits for 2024, the main business performance of Mengniu Dairy remains robust, with significant profit expectations for the second half of the year after excluding impairments [1] - Mengniu Dairy's profit warning suggests an expected profit of RMB 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 94.8% to 99% compared to RMB 48.1 billion in 2023, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions [1] - The company anticipates a goodwill and intangible asset impairment of RMB 3.8 billion to 4 billion due to poor operational and financial performance of Bellamy, along with a further impact of RMB 790 million to 900 million from joint venture Modern Dairy's impairment [1] Group 2 - Excluding the aforementioned impairments, Mengniu Dairy's main business is expected to yield a profit of RMB 46.4 billion to 51.5 billion for 2024, aligning with market consensus expectations, with a notable improvement in net profit for the second half projected at RMB 21.9 billion to 27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7% to 37.4% [1] - In the context of a pressured overall dairy market, Mengniu Dairy has achieved market share gains in niche segments such as premium milk and low-temperature yogurt, benefiting from stabilized raw milk prices and a return to rational market competition [2] - The target price for Mengniu Dairy has been raised to HKD 20.94 from HKD 16.04, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, while maintaining a "buy" rating [2]