Earnings Preview: Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for release on February 27, 2025, with expectations of quarterly earnings at $0.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 15.3$779.89 million, representing a 5% increase from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 5.38% over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Acadia Healthcare is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.44%. This suggests a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Acadia Healthcare was expected to post earnings of $0.90 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of$0.91, resulting in a surprise of +1.11%. Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [12][13]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, Acadia Healthcare does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for such an outcome, especially given its Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates predictions of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11][16].