Core Viewpoint - Debon Securities has raised revenue and profit expectations for Juzhi Biotechnology, highlighting three major discrepancies in market perception regarding collagen products, product matrix, and medical beauty products, while emphasizing the company's long-term growth potential due to its ingredient advantages, new product layout, and channel resources [1][2]. Group 1: Collagen Product Market - The report indicates that despite some views suggesting limited growth potential for collagen stick products, data shows that the GMV for Kefu Beauty collagen sticks on Tmall and Douyin is expected to approach 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, with sales volume reaching 5.29 million units, a significant increase from 900 million yuan and 200,000 units in 2023 [1]. - Compared to other brands like Proya and Han Shu, the market ceiling for collagen sticks remains high, and Debon Securities believes that the collagen protein ingredient market is still in its growth phase, positioning Juzhi Biotechnology to benefit from market expansion [1]. Group 2: Product Matrix and New Products - Addressing concerns about the perceived singularity of Kefu Beauty's product matrix, the report highlights strong performance from new products, with a focus cream launched in 2024 achieving an online GMV of 277 million yuan in just seven months, and surpassing 100 million yuan in GMV for October alone, contributing an average of about 8% monthly [2]. - Additionally, Kefu Beauty and Keli Jin are continuously launching new products to enhance their product layout, such as the Frame Domain Repair Series set to launch in February 2025, which will be the first to apply IV-type thermoplastic collagen, providing new growth momentum for the brand [1][2]. Group 3: Medical Aesthetics Market Potential - The report analyzes Juzhi Biotechnology's potential in the medical aesthetics sector, noting that despite intense market competition, the company is accelerating its layout in Class III medical devices, with a bone repair material registration certificate expected in December 2024 and four new medical beauty products in the pipeline [2]. - With a comprehensive indication layout and channel advantages, Juzhi Biotechnology is anticipated to achieve rapid growth in the medical aesthetics market [2]. Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Based on the analysis, Debon Securities has adjusted Juzhi Biotechnology's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.379 billion yuan, 6.951 billion yuan, and 8.790 billion yuan, respectively, while the net profit forecasts are set at 2.060 billion yuan, 2.609 billion yuan, and 3.213 billion yuan [2].
德邦证券上调巨子生物营收与利润预期 维持“买入”评级