Acadia Healthcare to Report Q4 Earnings: Can it Overcome Rising Costs?

Core Viewpoint - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 27, 2025, with earnings estimated at 72 cents per share and revenues of $779.89 million, indicating a year-over-year revenue growth of 5% despite a decline in earnings per share [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 2 cents per share over the past 60 days, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 15.3% in earnings [2]. - For the full year 2024, the revenue estimate for Acadia Healthcare is$ 3.16 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.9%, while the EPS estimate is $3.38, indicating a decline of approximately 1.7% year-over-year [3]. Recent Performance - Acadia Healthcare has consistently beaten consensus earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.9% [3]. - However, the current model indicates uncertainty regarding an earnings beat for the upcoming quarter, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -5.44% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4]. Revenue Drivers - Revenue estimates for Acute Inpatient Psychiatric Facilities are projected to increase nearly 6% from the previous year's figure of$ 375.6 million, while Residential Treatment Centers are expected to see a 23% increase from $84.3 million [6]. - U.S. same-facility patient days are anticipated to grow by 4% year-over-year, with admissions expected to rise by 3.1% [7]. Expense Considerations - Rising expenses are likely to impact profit levels, with total expenses expected to increase by more than 6% in the upcoming quarter due to higher salaries, professional fees, and operating costs [8]. - Supply costs are also projected to rise due to increased utilization [8]. Other Revenue Insights - Revenue estimates for Specialty Treatment Facilities are expected to decrease by nearly 2% from$ 151.3 million, and Comprehensive Treatment Centers are projected to see a 1.2% decline from $131.6 million [9].