Retail Earnings: An In-Depth Analysis

Retail Sector Performance - The recent earnings focus has been on the Retail sector, with big-box operators like Walmart and Home Depot reporting quarterly results [2] - Walmart's shares declined post-earnings due to disappointing guidance, despite solid results and continued market share gains [3] - Home Depot's shares increased after reporting better-than-expected comparable sales, marking a positive turnaround after eight consecutive quarters of declines [4] Earnings Trends - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, showing a notable growth trend with total earnings up +13.6% year-over-year and revenues up +5.5% [7] - In the Retail sector, earnings for companies reporting are up +32.3% year-over-year, with 72% beating EPS and revenue estimates [7] - Excluding Amazon, the Retail sector's earnings growth adjusts to +4.6% and revenue growth to +5.4% [7] Tech Sector Outlook - The Tech sector is expected to see earnings growth of +24.6% in Q4, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [9][10] - Despite a strong outlook, recent data indicates a shift in earnings estimate revisions for the Tech sector [11] Future Earnings Expectations - Total S&P 500 earnings for Q1 2025 are expected to increase by +6.5% year-over-year, although estimates have been declining since the quarter began [14] - A broad-based revision trend shows cuts in estimates across 15 of 16 sectors, with the Tech sector also experiencing downward pressure [17] - The expectation for 2025 is nearly all sectors to enjoy earnings growth, with seven sectors projected to achieve double-digit growth [19]