Shell Forecasts a 60% Surge in Global LNG Demand by 2040

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc projects a significant increase in global LNG demand, expecting it to rise by 60% by 2040, with Asia leading this growth [1][2]. LNG Demand Outlook - The demand for LNG is anticipated to reach between 630-718 million tons per year by 2040, reflecting an upward trend compared to previous estimates [2]. - LNG is expected to play a crucial role in meeting global energy needs for power generation, heating, cooling, industry, and transport due to its reliability and flexibility [2][3]. Factors Driving LNG Demand - Economic expansion in Asia, emission-reduction efforts in heavy industry and transportation, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence are key factors contributing to the increase in LNG demand [4]. - Countries like China and India are enhancing their gas infrastructure to meet rising energy needs while aiming to reduce carbon emissions [5]. Regional Developments - China is rapidly increasing its LNG import capacity and pipeline network, aiming to connect an additional 150 million people by 2030 [5]. - India plans to extend gas access to 30 million more consumers over the next five years [5]. - The marine sector is shifting towards LNG adoption, expecting annual demand to exceed 16 million tons by 2030, a 60% increase from previous forecasts [6]. Market Dynamics in 2024 - In 2024, LNG trade growth was limited to just 2 million tons, reaching 407 million tons, primarily due to restricted new supply development and geopolitical tensions [7]. - LNG prices dropped to their lowest levels since 2022 in the first half of 2024 but rebounded mid-year as supply could not keep pace with rising demand [8]. Future Projections - Europe is expected to increase LNG imports in 2025 to replenish gas storage levels [10]. - The United States is projected to boost LNG exports to 180 million tons per year by 2030, becoming the largest LNG exporter globally [10]. - Qatar is also expected to significantly expand its LNG supply in the future, although uncertainties remain regarding the timeline for new project start-ups [10].