中信证券：公商务需求加速修复 期待长航线获得增量

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the accelerated recovery of business travel demand after the Lantern Festival, which is a significant support for the recent positive trend in domestic ticket prices [1] - After the Lantern Festival, passenger flow on the Beijing-Shanghai route has recovered to 92.4% of the levels seen in the 10 days prior to the Spring Festival, outperforming the 88.7% recovery seen in 2024 [1] - The expectation of accelerated resumption of work and production, along with high economic activity, is anticipated to stimulate travel demand [1] Group 2 - North American routes are identified as a major factor limiting the utilization rate of wide-body aircraft, with a 10% recovery in flight volume potentially increasing wide-body utilization by 0.1 to 0.2 hours [1] - The article anticipates further recovery of China-US routes by 2025, which would benefit airlines by optimizing unit fuel costs [1] - Sanctions on Iran may create a supply gap, potentially accelerating OPEC's production increase in the second quarter of 2025, alleviating pressure on jet fuel costs and serving as a direct catalyst for airline profits [1] Group 3 - The average price of aviation kerosene in the first two months of 2025 has decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with a 10% drop in jet fuel ex-factory prices [1] - Airline valuations are currently considered attractive, suggesting opportunities for strategic investments during the off-peak season [1]