Consumer Spending Is Slowing—But These Stocks Will Still Thrive

Core Viewpoint - The contraction in consumer spending in the United States for the first time in nearly two years indicates potential weakness for consumer cyclical stocks and the broader economy [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending and Market Sentiment - Weakening consumer data may lead to a shift towards "defensive" stocks, as investors seek safety amid potential market volatility [2] - If further contractions in consumer spending are reported, capital may gradually shift from cyclical stocks to defensive names [2][4] - Recent performance indicates a rotation towards defensive stocks, with consumer staples outperforming discretionary stocks by 10.5% over the past month [5][6] Group 2: Institutional Activity and Stock Recommendations - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in consumer staples ETFs by 11.6%, while $3.5 billion was sold in discretionary ETFs, highlighting a clear rotation [7] - Colgate-Palmolive is highlighted as a stable investment with a 12-month price forecast of$101.61, indicating a potential upside of 9.57% [8][10] - Exxon Mobil is also noted for its momentum, with a 12-month price forecast of $129.25, suggesting a 20.02$101.61, indicating a favorable outlook despite its high valuation [10] - Exxon Mobil's fair valuation is estimated at $135 per share, suggesting further upside potential as reliance on oil remains critical during economic slowdowns [12]