Grab Holdings: Time to Grab More of This Rideshare Beast

Core Viewpoint - Grab Holdings Ltd is the largest rideshare operator in Southeast Asia, with significant growth potential due to low market penetration and a diverse service offering [1][2][3]. Business Overview - Grab serves nearly 44 million monthly transacting users across eight Southeast Asian countries, indicating a 5% market penetration in a region with a population of nearly 700 million [1][2]. - The company has transformed from a rideshare app into a "super app," offering various services including food delivery, digital banking, and insurance [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Grab reported a profit of $0.01 per share, with revenues increasing 17$764 million, surpassing analyst expectations [4]. - The company achieved an operating profit of $2 million, a$48 million improvement year-over-year, and an adjusted EBITDA of $97 million, up$61 million year-over-year [4]. - For the full year 2024, revenues grew 21% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of$313 million [5]. Future Guidance - Grab forecasts 2025 revenues between $3.33 billion and$3.40 billion, representing a growth rate of 19% to 22% [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be between $440 million and$470 million, indicating a growth of 41% to 50% [6]. Key Metrics - On-demand gross merchandise value (GMV) rose 19% year-over-year to $5.03 billion, with monthly transacting users increasing 17$204 million, while consumer incentives rose 37% year-over-year to $308 million [7]. - The loan portfolio grew 64$536 million [7]. Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - CEO Anthony Tan highlighted that Q4 was the strongest quarter ever for Grab, achieving its first full year of positive group-adjusted EBITDA [9]. - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating for Grab, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $5.62, indicating a potential upside of 19.89% [9][12].