Private Payrolls in February Well Below Expectations

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The stock market has been significantly affected by tariff policies discussed by President Trump, with market indexes declining between 2.5-5% over the past week due to the potential imposition of tariffs on trading partners [1] - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that an announcement regarding tariffs may be forthcoming, which has led to fluctuations in major indexes [2] - Lutnick suggested that the White House may consider reducing tariffs based on compliance with the U.S. MCA trade policy, particularly affecting domestic automakers [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP private-sector payroll report revealed an increase of +77K jobs, which is significantly lower than the expected +148K and the lowest since July of the previous year [4] - Goods-producing jobs increased by +42K, outperforming the +36K in private-sector services for the first time in recent memory [5] - Small firms lost -12K positions, while large companies gained +37K and medium-sized businesses added +46K jobs, with Leisure & Hospitality leading the gains [6] Group 3: Wage Growth Metrics - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.7% year-over-year, while Job Changers saw an average increase of +6.7%, indicating a slight decrease from the previous month [7] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Reports - Economic reports expected to be released include the final S&P Services PMI for February, ISM Services, and Factory Orders for January, which are anticipated to show positive trends [8]