Hain Celestial Valuation Is Low Versus Historical Levels, But Analyst Remains Neutral - Here's Why

Core Viewpoint - J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman maintains a Neutral rating on The Hain Celestial Group, Inc., lowering the price forecast to $5 from$6, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's sales trends [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The revised estimates indicate that sales trends are likely to decline by approximately -4%, which is worse than the more optimistic -3% forecast from Consensus Metrix [1] - Certain U.S.-based categories such as baby food, tea, and yogurt are performing relatively better, while the snack segment is struggling, as indicated by NielsenIQ data [2] - The International segment may also underperform this quarter due to consumers shifting towards discount retailers, negatively impacting sales in major categories [2] Group 2: Financial Estimates - EBITDA estimates have been revised downwards: 3Q25 to $40 million from$47 million, FY25 to $150 million from$158 million, FY26 to $154 million from$165 million, and FY27 to $158 million from$168 million, all figures falling below Consensus Metrix projections [4] - Concerns over the potential unreliability of projected EBITDA figures used in consensus forecasts contribute to the neutral stance [3] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - CEO Wendy Davidson's strategy focuses on growth through efficiency-driven marketing and innovation, which could yield long-term benefits for the company [4] - Some of the company's brands have unique shelf positions, presenting significant potential for expanded distribution [5] Group 4: Market Reaction - HAIN shares are trading lower by 9.79% to $3.915 as of the last check [5]