Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) ZACKS·2025-03-17 16:15Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is expected to report a revenue increase for Q4 fiscal 2024, but a decline in earnings per share is anticipated compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 revenues is 1.20, indicating a 2.4% decrease year-over-year [2]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, with the last quarter outperforming estimates by 1.8% [2]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Performance - Ollie's business model of "buying cheap and selling cheap," along with cost-containment efforts and a focus on store productivity, are expected to positively impact revenue [3]. - The Ollie's Army loyalty program has seen continuous membership growth, with 14.8 million active members contributing to over 80% of sales [3]. - Comparable store sales growth is projected at 2.8% for the final quarter [3]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The company's disciplined inventory management and sourcing from closeouts and overstocks ensure stores are well-stocked, enhancing customer experience and foot traffic [4]. - Ongoing store expansion, including the acquisition of "99 Cents Only" stores and leases for former Big Lots locations, is driving incremental revenue [5]. Group 4: Margin Considerations - There are concerns regarding margins due to potential increases in SG&A expenses, which are expected to rise by 3.8% year-over-year [6]. - An operating margin contraction of 110 basis points is anticipated [6]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model indicates that Ollie's Bargain does not conclusively predict an earnings beat this time, with an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7][8].