Novo Nordisk's next-gen obesity drug CagriSema had investors excited. Now they're not so sure

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's CagriSema drug, aimed at obesity treatment, has faced skepticism after trial results fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in share prices [1][3][4] Group 1: Trial Results - The REDEFINE-2 trial showed a weight loss of 15.7% for patients using CagriSema over 68 weeks, compared to 3.1% for placebo, which was below the previously forecasted high-teens percentage [2] - A prior trial indicated a 22.7% weight loss for patients with comorbidities, also below the expected 25% [3] - Concerns about CagriSema's tolerability arose, with fewer than two-thirds of patients reaching the highest dose after 68 weeks, although Novo claimed it was "well-tolerated" with mild to moderate gastrointestinal side effects [6] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Novo Nordisk's stock has declined approximately 50% from its 2024 highs, with negative sentiment prevailing among investors [4] - Analysts express uncertainty about CagriSema being a "best in class" treatment, with upcoming studies potentially providing more insights into its efficacy [7][9] - The weight-loss drug market is projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030, attracting interest from other firms, including Roche's recent deal to develop Zealand Pharma's amylin analog obesity drug [11][12] Group 3: Future Prospects - The REDEFINE-4 study, expected in early 2026, may offer further insights into CagriSema's long-term efficacy and dosing flexibility [7] - Companies that can address diverse needs in obesity treatment, alongside significant production capacity, are likely to capture a larger market share [10] - Novo Nordisk plans to file for regulatory approval for CagriSema in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a long road ahead to regain investor confidence [12][13]