Deere Share Price Increases 11.5% YTD: How Should You Play It Now?

Group 1: Stock Performance - Deere & Company (DE) shares have gained 11.5% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry's 10.6% growth, while the broader Zacks Industrial Products sector has declined 5.1% and the S&P 500 slipped 4.1% [1] Group 2: Recent Financial Performance - DE has reported year-over-year decreases in sales and earnings for the past five consecutive quarters, with a 48.8% plunge in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 and equipment sales down 35.1% [2][3] - Agricultural and Turf equipment sales decreased by 34% in the quarter, with volumes falling 35%, while the Construction and Forestry segment saw a 38% decline in sales [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a 29.5% year-over-year increase in net farm income to $180.1 billion for 2025, following declines in 2023 and 2024, driven mainly by a$33.1 billion increase in direct government farm payments [4] - Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by 2.3% from 2024 levels due to lower prices for soybeans and corn, which may negatively impact demand for new farming equipment [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - DE anticipates net sales for Production and Precision Agriculture to decline by 15-20% year over year in fiscal 2025, with Small Agriculture and Turf sales expected to drop by 10% [6] - The company expects net income for fiscal 2025 to be between $5 billion and$5.5 billion, significantly lower than the $7.1 billion reported in fiscal 2024 [7] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are losing confidence in DE stock, as indicated by downward earnings estimate revisions for fiscal 2025 and 2026, with a consensus estimate suggesting a year-over-year decline of 24.7$42.05 billion in 2025 [13] - The demand for construction equipment is anticipated to be supported by increased infrastructure spending [14]