新莱应材(300260)：半导体业务加速成长 静待利润弹性释放

Core Viewpoint - Company reports a steady growth in revenue driven by the semiconductor business, with expectations for profit release in the future [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.43%; Q4 revenue was 697 million yuan, down 5.11% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations due to revenue recognition timing [2] - The semiconductor segment benefited from a recovery in domestic market demand and accelerated domestic substitution, with an estimated revenue growth of about 50% in H1 2024 [2] - The food segment faced a declining industry demand but the company's market share in China continued to increase, mitigating some negative impacts [2] - The pharmaceutical segment is expected to remain under pressure due to intensified competition [2] Profitability Analysis - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 249 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%; the non-recurring net profit was 232 million yuan, up 1.60% [3] - In Q4, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.38 million yuan, down 23.94% year-on-year, primarily due to concentrated fixed asset depreciation rather than operational factors [3] - The gross profit margin showed an upward trend due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor business and a decline in raw material prices in the food sector [3] Market Opportunities - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the BIS sanctions, with a projected domestic semiconductor component market exceeding 25 billion yuan by 2025 [4] - The company’s products meet the demands of advanced 7nm processes and have been successfully delivered to major global semiconductor players [4] - A new joint venture was established with an investment of 14 million yuan to expand into cloud computing and related technologies, indicating a strategic move to diversify and grow [5] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 2.859 billion, 3.412 billion, and 4.317 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 19.4%, and 26.5% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 249 million, 372 million, and 537 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.5%, 49.5%, and 44.2% [7] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a projected PE ratio of 42, 28, and 20 for the years 2025-2026 [7]