Can British American Tobacco's Non-Cigarette Ventures Sustain Its 7% Dividend Yield?

Group 1: Company Overview - British American Tobacco generates approximately 80% of its revenue from combustible products, with cigarettes accounting for 97% of the volume sold [2] - The company is facing a long-term decline in cigarette volumes, which fell by 5% in 2024, following decreases of 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2022 [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The number of individuals using only combustible nicotine products in the U.S. has decreased from 34 million in 2019 to 28 million by the end of 2024, indicating a broader trend affecting the cigarette industry [3] - British American Tobacco is attempting to diversify its product offerings by investing in "new categories" such as vaping products, heated products, and pouches, which currently contribute nearly 20% of revenue [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, British American Tobacco paid out more in dividends than it earned, resulting in a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100%. However, the adjusted earnings payout ratio stands at 66% [6][7] - The dividend consumed around two-thirds of the company's cash flow in 2024, suggesting that the dividend is sustainable for the time being [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The new categories are expected to play a crucial role in offsetting declines in the core cigarette business, but they currently contribute only 2% of the company's profit from operations [8] - While the dividend is secure for now, the company faces a long-term challenge in transitioning away from cigarettes, and failure to successfully grow its non-combustible businesses could jeopardize the dividend in the future [9][10]