国科军工(688543)：军品稳健增长 看好弹药龙头高成长

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guokexun Military Industry, reported a solid growth in military products, with a focus on ammunition, and is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the coming years [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.204 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 199 million yuan, up 41.25% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter revenue reached 440 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.15% [1]. - Military products generated revenue of 1.167 billion yuan, up 17.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.50%, an increase of 2.23 percentage points [2]. Product Segmentation - The solid rocket engine power module experienced rapid growth, while the revenue from civilian products decreased by 20.79% to 29 million yuan, with a gross margin of 23.41% [1][2]. - The subsidiaries responsible for ammunition equipment reported a combined revenue of 634 million yuan, up 12.01% year-on-year, while those handling fuses and safety control modules saw a revenue decline of 12.08% to 258 million yuan [2]. Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure by 25.95% to 91.166 million yuan, focusing on core products and enhancing research in missile solid rocket engine power modules and intelligent ammunition systems [2]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 123.87% due to the timing of military unit equipment funding approvals, but adjusted cash flow showed a year-on-year increase of 10.81% to 489 million yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 245 million, 301 million, and 366 million yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [3]. - A target price of 69.50 yuan is set based on a 50X target PE for 2025, reflecting the company's strong positioning in ammunition and solid rocket engine sectors [3].